EFFECTS OF SMOKING SCENES IN MOVIES?’

Psychological Reports, 2007, 100, 3-18. © Psychological Reports 2007
CAN CIGARETTE WARNINGS COUNTERBALANCE
EFFECTS OF SMOKING SCENES IN MOVIES?’
ISABELLE GOLMIER                                   JEAN-CHARLES CHEBAT
National Bank of Canada                                 HEC-Montreal School of Management
Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Montreal
CLAIRE GELINAS-CHEBAT
Department of Linguistics

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Universitc> du Que’hec a Montrc’al
Summary. Scenes in movies where smoking occurs have been empirically shown to influence teenagers to smoke cigarettes. The capacity of a Canadian warning label on cigarette packages to decrease the effects of smoking scenes in popular movies has been investigated. A 2 x 3 factorial design was used to test the effects of the same movie scene with or without electronic manipulation of all elements related to smok­ing, and cigarette pack warnings, i.e., no warning, text-only warning, and text +pic­ture warning. Smoking-related stereotypes and intent to smoke of teenagers were mea­sured. It was found that, in the absence of warning, and in the presence of smoking scenes, teenagers showed positive smoking-related stereotypes. However, these effects were not observed if the teenagers were first exposed to a picture and text warning. Also, smoking-related stereotypes mediated the relationship of the combined presenta­tion of a text and picture warning and a smoking scene on teenagers’ intent to smoke. Effectiveness of Canadian warning labels to prevent or to decrease cigarette smoking among teenagers is discussed, and areas of research are proposed.
The problem of teenager consumption of tobacco is serious. Approxi­mately 22% of Canadian teenagers between 15 and 19 years currently smoke cigarettes (Health Canada, 2003). Sociodemographic analyses indicated that they are more likely to be found in the lower income and lower education segment of the Canadian population (Health Canada, 1995, 1999), as is also the case in other countries (Goldberg, Kindra, Lefebvre, Liefeld, Madill-Marshall, Martoharadjono, & Vredenburg, 1995; Blum, Beuhring, Shew, Bearinger, Sieving, & Resnick, 2000). In Canada, warning labels on cigarette packages have been conceived as one of the key strategies to prevent teenag­ers from smoking.
In 2000, the Canadian government adopted one of the world’s toughest laws for cigarette warnings (Health Canada, 2004). Each warning label coy-
‘Address correspondence to Jean-Charles Chebat, Chair of Commercial Space and Customer Service Management Holder, HEC-Montreal School of Management, 3000 Cote-Sainte-Cathe­rine Local 4.348, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 11.3T 2A7 or e-mail ( Jean-Ch.arles.Chebat@hec. ca), The first and third authors gratefully acknowledge a research grant they received from the Quebec Council of Social Research (CQRSC).
DOT 10.2466/P80.100.1.3-18

Influence of Motion Picture Rating on AdolescentResponse to Movie Smoking
WHAT’S KNOWN ON THIS SUBJECT: The US Surgeon General hasdetermined that the relationship between movie smoking
exposure (MSE) and youth smoking is causal; however, it is not
known whether movie rating influences how adolescents respond.
WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: The response to PG-13–rated MSE wasindistinguishable from R-rated MSE. An R rating for smoking could
reduce smoking onset in the United States by 18% (by eliminating
PG-13 MSE), an effect similar to making all parents maximally
authoritative in their parenting.
AUTHORS: James D. Sargent, MD,a Susanne Tanski, MD,MPH,a and Mike Stoolmiller, PhDb
        Cotton Cancer Center, Geisel School of Medicine atDartmouth, Lebanon, New Hampshire; and bCollege of Education,
University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon
KEY WORDSadolescent smoking, motion picture rating, movie smoking
ABBREVIATIONSCI—confidence interval
MPAA—Motion Picture Association of America
MSE—movie smoking exposure
www.pediatrics.org/cgi/doi/10.1542/peds.2011-1787
doi:10.1542/peds.2011-1787
aNorris
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abstract
OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between movie smoking expo-sure (MSE) and adolescent smoking according to rating category.
METHODS: A total of 6522 US adolescents were enrolled in a longitudinalsurvey conducted at 8-month intervals; 5503 subjects were followed up at
8 months, 5019 subjects at 16 months, and 4575 subjects at 24 months.
MSE was estimated from 532 recent box-office hits, blocked into 3 Motion
Picture Association of America rating categories: G/PG, PG-13, and R. A
survival model evaluated time to smoking onset.
RESULTS: Median MSE in PG-13–rated movies was ∼3 times higher thanmedian MSE from R-rated movies, but their relation with smoking was
essentially the same, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.49 (95% confidence
interval [CI]: 1.23–1.81) and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.23–1.81) for each additional
500 occurrences of MSE respectively. MSE from G/PG-rated movies was
small and had no significant relationship with adolescent smoking. At-
tributable risk estimates showed that adolescent smoking would be re-
duced by 18% (95% CI: 14–21) if smoking in PG-13–rated movies was
reduced to the fifth percentile. In comparison, making all parents max-
imally authoritative in their parenting would reduce adolescent smoking
by 16% (95% CI: 12–19).
CONCLUSIONS: The equivalent effect of PG-13-rated and R-rated MSEsuggests it is the movie smoking that prompts adolescents to
smoke, not other characteristics of R-rated movies or adolescents
drawn to them. An R rating for movie smoking could substantially
reduce adolescent smoking by eliminating smoking from PG-13 movies.
Pediatrics 2012;130:228–236
Accepted for publication Apr 16, 2012
Address correspondence to James D. Sargent, MD, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, One Medical Center Dr, Lebanon, NH

  1. E-mail: james.d.sargent@dartmouth.edu
PEDIATRICS (ISSN Numbers: Print, 0031-4005; Online, 1098-4275).
Copyright © 2012 by the American Academy of Pediatrics
FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE: The authors have indicated they haveno financial relationships relevant to this article to disclose.
FUNDING: Supported by the National Cancer Institute (grantCA077026) and the American Legacy Foundation. Funded by the
National Institutes of Health (NIH).
COMPANION PAPER: A companion to this article can be found onpage 221, and online at www.pediatrics.org/cgi/doi/10.1542/
peds.2011-1792.
228
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ARTICLE
Almost 50 years since the 1964 SurgeonGeneral’s Report on Smoking and Health,
smoking remains the number 1 cause of
preventable death in the United States,
responsible for .400 000 deaths per
year, prompting a need to know more
about what fuels this epidemic. In March
2012, a new Surgeon General’s Report
was released, entitled “Preventing To-
bacco Use Among Youth and Young
Adults,” and in which the Surgeon Gen-
eral stated: “The evidence is sufficient to
conclude that there is a causal rela-
tionship between depictions of smoking
in movies and the initiation of smoking
among young people.”1 Thus, much is
known about the relation between ex-
posure to movie smoking and youth
smoking, but studies are only beginning
to examine whether the context in which
movie smoking is presented modifies its
association with adolescent smoking.
In a recently published experiment,2 ex-
posure to movie clips portraying smok-
ing as relaxing was associated with
a significantly stronger desire to smoke
compared with exposure to clips
without a motive for the smoking. Al-
though experimental studies allow the
researcher to control exposure and
serve to tease out underlying cognitive
mechanisms, it is difficult to study actual
smoking behavior in an experimental
setting, and therefore it is hard to judge
what the behavioral implications of the
findings would be.
Another way to assess context is toconsider movie rating. Movie ratings
are a marker for the presence of con-
textual elements considered to be
“adult” by the ratings board. To the
extent that sex, violence, profanity, and
illicit drug use are considered in the
Motion Picture Association of America
(MPAA) ratings system,3 smoking in
movies with an adult rating (eg, R [re-
stricted to individuals aged $17 years
unless accompanied by a parent or
guardian]) would depict characters
who model these behaviors, along with
PEDIATRICS Volume 130, Number 2, August 2012
FIGURE 1
Examples of different contextual treatments of movie smoking, clockwise from top left: Cruella de Vil, anuncomplicated villain in 101 Dalmatians (rated G; Walt Disney Productions, 1961); Gwyneth Paltrow
smoking in the context of a sexually provocative scene in Great Expectations (rated R; 20th Century Fox
Film Corporation, 1998); Ethan Hawke blowing smoke into a backlit wine glass to show what the planet
Titan looks like in Gattica (rated PG-13; Columbia Pictures Corporation, 1997); and Brad Pitt smoking
after a brutal fight scene from Fight Club (rated R; Fox 2000 Pictures, 1999).
smoking. Indeed, a content analysisfound that MPAA ratings can reliably
distinguish levels of sex, violence, and
profanity but not tobacco use.4 Figure 1
depicts several examples of movie
smoking by rating and a range of con-
texts that might be seen with movie
smoking according to rating category:
simple villainy (G [appropriate for gen-
eral audiences]), visually stimulating (PG-
13 [parents are strongly cautioned, con-
tent may not be suitable for children aged
,13 years]), and violence and sex (R).
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Examining how movie ratings affect themovie smoking–behavior association
could have important implications on
ratings for movie smoking,5 especially
given that 60% of the movie smoking
exposure (MSE) comes from youth-
rated (almost entirely PG-13) movies.6
In the United States, an R rating for
smoking would serve to effectively eli-
minate smoking from movies marketed
to youths, based on the current business
model for movie production, in which
the rating is negotiated between pro-
duction company and the director be-
fore movie production.7 The implication
is that a production company intending
to include the youth market would have
to eliminate smoking in the production
process, as is currently done with sexand violence to obtain the PG-13 rating.
However, the hypothetical benefits of
limiting MSE in youth-rated movies
depends partly on how strongly the
smoking in them is linked with ado-
lescent smoking. Importantly, limiting
smoking to R-rated movies would have
little impact if the dose-response be-
tween smoking in youth-rated movies
and adolescent smoking was small.
In addition, if only R-rated movie smokingwas linked with behavior, it would se-
riously undermine the idea that it is
movie smoking specifically, as opposed
to the sex, violence, profanity, and illicit
drug use that prompts smoking onset.
Indeed, a recent essay speculated that
the movie smoking–youth smoking re-
lationship might not be causal because
MSE is “inextricably entangled with a
host of other variables in movies…
such as alcohol or recreational drug
portrayal, violence, coarse language,
and sexual content,”8 raising concerns
about specificity. The essay went fur-
ther, suggesting that it may not be the
movies at all that prompt adolescents
to smoke. Instead, adult movies may
attract risk-taking adolescents who
come to see the proscribed behaviors
229
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(ie, adolescents who end up smokingfor other reasons). In this scenario,
R-rated MSE would be hypothesized to
be overwhelmingly strong in its ability
to predict youth smoking, because R-rated
MSE picks up the effect of seeing “adult”
behaviors relegated to these movies
and identifies unmeasured risk factors
among the adolescents that see them.
The current study examined smokingonset in a cohort of US adolescents
followed up for 4 waves over a 2-year
period. Exposure to smoking in movies
at study onset was divided into 3 cat-
egories (G/PG, PG-13, and R) to assess
the prospective relationship between
each type of exposure and onset of
smoking. Based on the idea that it is
primarily the movie smoking that
prompts adolescents to smoke (with the
adult context being secondary), we hy-
pothesized that R-rated movie smoking
would have only a slightly stronger as-
sociation with adolescent smoking than
PG-13–rated movie smoking and that
PG-13–rated movie smoking would still
be an important predictor of smoking,
given that it accounts for a large share
of the exposure.
in the unweighted sample were compa-rable to those of the 2000 US Census.9
Missing data/attrition increased from 7adolescents at baseline to 2451 at 24
months. Attrition analyses indicated
that adolescents lost to follow-up were
more likely to be nonwhite; were from
families with lower parental education/
income and lived in rented versus
parent-owned residences; had poorer
school performance; and scored higher
on sensation-seeking scales. To mini-
mize attrition bias, estimation was
carried out after multiple imputation
using the missing at random assump-
tion (missing data are missing at ran-
dom conditional on covariates included
in the model).10 The MICE procedure in
R was used to stochastically impute
missing data.11 To improve the quality
of the imputations, baseline auxiliary
variables that were predictive of
missing data (but not necessarily the
outcomes) were also included in the
imputation. All variables were treated
as numeric, and the predictive mean
matching procedure was used to cre-
ate 15 imputed values for each missing
score. Convergence was assessed by
checking plots of the mean and vari-
ance of the imputations for each vari-
able across the 15 streams for signs of
problems, such as trends or lack of
proper mixing. No problems were ap-
parent. For descriptive statistics, we
averaged across the 15 imputations to
obtain a single best estimate for each
missing data point.
Assessment of MSE Dose
Adolescents’ exposure to movie smok-ing was estimated by using previously
validated methods.12 The top 100 movies
with highest US gross revenues each
year were selected for each of the 5
years preceding the baseline survey
(1998–2002, N = 500) and 32 high
earners during the first 4 months of

  1. Older movies were included be-

cause adolescents often watch these

movies on video/DVD. The survey ran-domly selected 50 movie titles from the
larger pool of 532 movies for each ad-
olescent interview. Movie selection was
stratified according to the MPAA rating
so that the distribution of movies in
each list reflected the distribution of
the full sample of movies (19% G/PG,
41% PG-13, and 40% R). Respondents
were asked (no/yes) whether they had
ever seen each movie title on their unique
list.
Trained coders counted the number ofsmoking occurrences in each of the 532
movies by using previously validated
methods.13 A smoking occurrence was
counted whenever a major or minor
character handled or used tobacco in a
scene or when tobacco use was de-
picted in the background (eg, brands
present or “extras” smoking in a bar
scene), irrespective of the scene’s du-
ration or how many times the tobacco
product appeared. We summed the
number of smoking occurrences each
adolescent had seen from his or her
unique list of 50 movies, stratifying
counts by rating blocks (G/GP, PG-13
and R categories), and scaling these
counts to reflect exposure to that of the
full sample of 532 movies, given the
adolescent’s reported viewing habits
by rating.12 To limit extreme values and
reduce the effect of outliers, MSE
measures were Winsorized14 at the
second and 98th percentiles (values
more extreme were recoded back to
the second or 98th percentile value). To
assess equivalent doses of exposure,
the response to each increment of 500
movie smoking occurrences was
modeled, which would approximate the
median overall dose of MSE.
Outcome Assessment
Smoking initiation was assessed byasking: “Have you ever tried smoking a
cigarette, even just a puff?” Those who
answered “yes” were classified as
having tried smoking. This measure
METHODS
Participants and Procedure
Participants were 6522 adolescents,ages 10 to 14 years, recruited in 2003 by
using random digit dial methods de-
scribed previously.9 After verbal paren-
tal consent and adolescent assent were
obtained, participants were surveyed
via telephone about media exposures,
tobacco and alcohol use, sociodemo-
graphic characteristics, and other risk
factors. Subjects were resurveyed every
8 months 3 more times, with the last
follow-up at 24 months. The study pro-
cedures were approved by the Dart-
mouth College Committee for Protection
of Human Subjects. The completion
rate for the survey was 66%; distri-
butions of age, gender, ethnicity,
household income, and census region
230
SARGENT et al
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ARTICLE
was used rather than current (30-day)smoking because current smoking is
infrequent in the early stages of ciga-
rette use.15 Smoking initiation is an
important outcome because approxi-
mately one-third of initiators go on to
become addicted smokers.16,17 For the
US sample, confidentiality in responses
was assured in the adolescent assent
statement, and subjects indicated
their answers to sensitive questions by
pressing numbers on the telephone.
seeking.34 To prevent problems due tooutliers, covariates were Winsorized at
the second and 98th percentiles.14
Statistical Analysis
Onset of smoking was ascertained atthe 8-, 16-, and 24-month surveys. An
incident case was defined as an ado-
lescent who became a smoker from the
pool of those who were not smokers at
the previous survey. As a first step,
generalized additive logistic models
werefittoshow the crude dose-response
relation between the MSE according to
MPAA rating and probability of smoking
initiation. In addition to strong linear
trends, both PG-13– and R-rated MSE
had significant negative quadratic trends
(significantly stronger response at
lower dose ranges); however, only the
negative quadratic effect for R-rated
MSE remained significant after adjust-
ing for all covariates in the full model.
For ease of interpretation and because
conclusions did not change, only the
linear effects for all MSE measures
were used (quadratic estimates avail-
able on request from the first author).
For the models, MSE was entered as a
continuous variable and scaled so that
each 1-point increment represented an
increase in dose of 500 movie smoking
occurrences. To determine the associa-
tion between exposure to movie smok-
ing according to MPAA rating and time to
smoking initiation, discrete time hazard
survival models35–37 were fit to each of
the 15 imputed complete data sets fol-
lowing standard procedures for pooling
the estimates and obtaining SEs.11 The
hazard model assessed time to onset
based on data from all 3 intervals over
the 24-month period. For all models,
results for main effects were judged
significant for P values ,.05.
Attributable fraction calculations wereconducted after model fitting by ob-
taining the model-predicted number of
events with the observed data and the
model-predicted number of events when
Covariates
In addition to the movies viewed, otherinformation was collected from the
adolescents, including age, gender, race,
parent education, household income,
school performance, involvement in ex-
tracurricular activities, weekly spending
money, television watching (hours per
day), personality characteristics (rebel-
liousness, sensation-seeking propensity),
parent/sibling/peer smoking, cigarette
availability at home, and adolescent-
reported parenting practices.18 Author-
itative parenting style describes parents
that are both responsive and effective
in monitoring their children19; this con-
struct has a strong and consistent
track record in predicting lower levels
of substance use.18,20–32 The current
study used a 10-item version of the
Authoritative Parenting Index,18 in which
we combined results for questions
about responsiveness (“he/she makes
me feel better when I’m upset/listens
to what I have to say”) and monitoring
(“he/she asks me what I do with my
friends/knows where I am on the
weekend” [a = .79 survey 1, .81 survey 2])
and referenced questions to the per-
son the adolescent viewed as the
main caregiver. The assessment of
other covariates and their reliabilities
has been described previously.9,33 The
sensation-seeking scale used here has
been validated in longitudinal research
and has a reliabilities comparable to
other accepted scales for sensation
levels of MSE in our sample were alteredto a low level (ie, the fifth percentile) to
indicate what might happen if smoking
was largely removed from movies the
adolescents had watched. The attrib-
utable fractions were compared with
similar assessments for sensation
seeking (setting all adolescents at the
lowest level), or authoritative parenting
(setting all parents at the most author-
itative level). For each of the 15 impu-
tations, estimates and SEswere obtained
for the attributable fractions using 100
bootstrap replications. The bootstrap
estimates and SEs were then pooled
across the 15 multiple imputation mo-
dels using standard procedures.
RESULTS
Description of the Sample
Table 1 describes the predictor varia-bles for the study sample at baseline.
Age was equally represented and ranged
from 10 to 14 years at baseline; male
and female genders were also equally
represented. Race/ethnicity was broadly
reflective of the US population, with
11% black and 19% Hispanic ethnicity.
Some 18% of families were classified
as low-income, with 7% having incomes
of #$20 000 and 11% having income
between $20 000 and $29 000 per year.
At baseline, 83%, 88%, and 69% of ado-
lescents reported having no friends,
siblings, or parents, respectively, who
smoked, and 14% thought there was at
least some chance that they could ob-
tain cigarettes from home without their
parent’s knowledge. With respect to
media use, 28% watched $3 hours of
television per day. Only 15% reported no
weekly spending money, and 10%
reported having .$20 per week to
spend.
Dose of MSE by MPAA Rating and ItsRelation With Smoking Onset
Table 1 also displays the median andinterquartile range for MSE according
to MPAA rating category. High-dose
231
PEDIATRICS Volume 130, Number 2, August 2012
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(95th percentile) MSE was similar forPG-13– and R-rated movies (894 and
1002 occurrences, respectively) and
∼5 times that of the 95th percentile for
G/PG-rated MSE. However, the typical
(median) dose to adolescents for PG-
13–rated MSE was much higher than
for R-rated MSE (275 and 93 occurrences,
respectively), reflecting higher viewer-
ship of PG-13–rated movies overall. The
correlation between the 3 MSE variables
was .53 for PG-13–rated versus R-rated
movies, .18 for PG-13–rated versus G/
PG-rated movies, and .15 for R-rated
versus G/PG-rated movies.
Figure 2 shows the dose-response re-lation of MSE according to rating cat-
egory with the 8-month probability of
trying smoking using all three 8-month
observation periods; the unadjusted
probability of trying smoking was not
significantly different across the 3
periods. The null hypothesis is repre-
sented by the horizontal line set at the
average probability of trying smoking
(6.4%). Figure 2 illustrates the mark-
edly larger exposure to PG-13–rated
and R-rated movie smoking compared
with G/PG-rated movies, for which dose
did not extend past 200 occurrences,
even for the most highly exposed ado-
lescents. The relation for G/PG-rated
MSE and adolescent smoking (dotted
green line) was not significantly differ-
ent from zero. The unadjusted hazard
ratio associated with a 500-smoking
occurrence dose of G/PG-rated MSE
was 1.47 (95% CI: 0.65–3.36). Restrict-
ing G/PG-rated MSE to the observed
range (0–165 occurrences) made the
unadjusted hazard ratio even lower:
1.14 for the 95th percentile compared
with fifth percentile of actual G/PG-
rated MSE. In contrast, PG-13–rated
(dashed red line) and R-rated (solid
blue line) MSE had much larger ex-
posure ranges and crude relations
with youth smoking that were similar
to each other and strongly diver-
gent from the null hypothesis. The
232
SARGENT et al
TABLE 1 Description of the Never Smoker Sample at Baseline (N = 5830)
N
Age, y10
11
12
13
14
Race/ethnicity
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Gender
Male
Female
Family income (31000), $
,20
20–29
30–49
50–74
75–99
$100
Parent education
#9th grade
9th–11th grade
12th grade
High school diploma
Vocational/technical school
Some college
Associate degree
Bachelor degree
Postgraduate
Either parent smokes
No
Yes
Cigarettes available at home
Definitely no
Probably no
Probably yes
Definitely yes
Sibling(s) smoke
No
Yes
Peers smoke
None
Some
Most
Television viewing
None
,1 h/d
1–2 h/d
3–4 h/d
.4 h/d
School performance
Below average
Average
Above average
Excellent
Weekly spending money, $
None
1–5
6–0
11–15
11601244
1238
1213
975
3619619
1095
497
29702860
 401625
693
1183
1180
1748
 353414
229
1274
199
1004
501
1116
740
39991831
5005487
251
87
5115715
4854879
97
 3181151
2760
1139
462
 1261340
2479
1885
 8541907
1362
359
Proportion
.2.21
.21
.21
.17
.62.11
.19
.09
.51
.49
.07.11
.12
.2
.2
.3
.06.07
.04
.22
.03
.17
.09
.19
.13
.69.31
.86.08
.04
.01
.88.12
.83.15
.02
.05.2
.47
.2
.08
.02.23
.43
.32
.15.33
.23
.06
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ARTICLE
TABLE 1 Continued
N
16–2021–50
.50
796458
94
Median
Continuous variablesResponsive parenting
Demanding parenting
Sensation seeking
Rebelliousness
Extracurricular activities
Movie Smoking Exposure
G/PG-rated
PG-13–rated
R-rated
Proportion
.14.08
.02
Interquartile Range (25th–75th)
2.42.3
0.8
0.2
1.8
 61275
93
  22
0.5
1.5
1597
0
2.82.8
1.3
0.4
2.2
123514
393
indistinguishable from that of R-ratedMSE, a finding that directly refutes spec-
ulation8 that it is other adult-oriented
content or some yet-to-be-identified
individual risk factor that attracts
youths to R movies which causes the
response. Combined with recently
published experimental data that show
a movie smoking effect on susceptibil-
ity to smoke using a randomized de-
sign,38 the results strongly support the
idea that it is the movie smoking in
PG-13- and R-rated movies that stim-
ulates youths to smoke.
Because exposure to PG-13–rated mov-ies is large,39 the smoking in these
movies accounts for about two-thirds
of the population effect. Thus, an un-
ambiguous R rating for smoking could
reduce adolescent smoking onset by
almost one-fifth, as newly produced
smoke-free PG-13–rated movies come
into the market and old ones lose the
adolescent audience. The attributable
fraction estimate for PG-13– and R-
rated MSE is smaller than previous
estimates in predominantly white
adolescents40–42 (the pooled estimate
for those studies from an earlier meta-
analysis5 was 0.44 [95% CI: 0.34–0.58]
compared with 0.26 [95% CI: 0.23–0.29]
for this study), in part because the
response to movie smoking among
minority adolescents was less strong
than among whites.43,44 Regardless of
what the final attributable risk is,
however, the public health impact of
PG-13 smoking is important: it ranks on
the order of the impact of parenting
effectiveness.
Not only was exposure to G/PG MSE-rated small, the relation for G/PG-
rated MSE was not significantly different
from zero. Low responsiveness to
smoking in G/PG movies is consistent
with the results of an experimental
study that failed to find an effect of
cartoon and G/PG movie smoking on
attitudes in elementary school-aged
children.45 Another similarly designed
233
unadjusted hazard ratios for each500 occurrences of PG-13–rated and
R-rated MSE were 3.44 (95% CI: 2.74–
4.32) and 3.14 (95% CI: 2.58–3.83),
respectively.
Table 2 shows the adjusted hazard ra-tios for MSE according to MPAA rating.
There was no significant relation be-
tween exposure to G/PG-rated MSE and
adolescent smoking. The adjusted haz-
ard ratios for a 500-occurrence dose of
PG-13– and R-rated MSE were 1.49 (95%
CI: 1.23–1.81) and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.13–
1.57), respectively. Wald tests showed
that the MSE–youth smoking relation
for PG-13– and R-rated movies was not
significantly different from each other
but both were significantly higher
than the G/PG-rated MSE–youth smok-
ing relation.
This study was designed to detect a maineffect of MSE on adolescent smoking and
powered to detect an overall odds ratio
of 1.4 for the relation between smoking
in movies and smoking onset with
a powerof 0.97.Power for these analyses
was considerably reduced when MSE
was subdivided by MPAA rating into 3
correlated variables, especially consid-
ering the small range of G/PG-rated MSE.
However, additional power calculations
indicated that, even with this small
range, the power of the study to detect
an effect similar to PG-13 MSE (an
PEDIATRICS Volume 130, Number 2, August 2012
adjusted hazard ratio of 1.5 for a 500-occurrence dose) was 0.71.
Attributable Fraction Estimation
The attributable fraction estimate forsetting all PG-13– and R-rated MSE to
the fifth percentile was 0.26 (95% CI:
0.23–0.29), indicating that largely re-
moving the risk factor would reduce
smoking onset over the period by 26%.
Setting PG-13-rated MSE alone to the
fifth percentile (which approximates
the probable impact of an R rating for
smoking) was associated with an at-
tributable fraction of 0.18 (95% CI:
0.14–0.21). For comparison, the attrib-
utable fractions for setting authorita-
tive parenting to the highest level or
sensation seeking to the lowest level
were 0.16 (95% CI: 0.19–0.12) and 0.30
(95% CI: 0.35–0.25), respectively. Thus,
eliminating smoking from youth-rated
movies would reduce smoking by as
much as making all parents maximally
authoritative in their parenting.
DISCUSSION
This study provided a test of whether itis primarily the smoking in movies, not
the other adult behaviors that go along
with it, that affects adolescents’ be-
havior. The dose-response between PG-
13–rated MSE and youth smoking is
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FIGURE 2
The unadjusted relation between exposure to G/PG-, PG-13–, and R-rated MSE and the 8-month hazardprobability of smoking onset for US adolescents. The unadjusted probability (hazard) of trying smoking
was not significantly different across each of the three 8-month follow up periods and was equal to
0.064, shown in the plot as a thin horizontal line. All 3 exposures (G/PG [dotted green line], PG-13
[dashed red line], and R [solid blue line]) were entered as linear effects. The small lines on either side
of each curve represent the 95% CIs for the estimate. The model was estimated on the log odds scale by
using logistic regression as is standard for discrete time survival analysis. Because the log odds scale
is difficult to interpret, however, the fitted relations were converted to the probability scale. The change
of scaling of the y-axis from log odds to probability creates the apparent curvilinearity.
TABLE 2 Association Between MSE According to MPAA Rating and Time to Trying (Hazard of)
Smoking
Adjusted Hazard Odds Ratio
Low
MSEa according to movie ratingG/PG-rated
PG-13–rated
R-rated
0.491.49
1.33
Test
Wald testsG/PG versus R and PG-13
G/PG versus PG-13
G/PG versus R
PG-13 versus R
a
95% CI
High
1.091.81
1.57
P
the findings of this study and a relatedpublication50 are consistent with this
causal interpretation. Our conclusion
that it is the smoking in PG-13– and R-
rated movies that prompts adolescents
to smoke is strengthened theoretically
on the parsimonious notion of a social
modeling effect and supported by social
cognitive theory.51 Our study was not
powered to detect a small effect, such
as that seen in the unadjusted relation
between G/PG-rated MSE and adoles-
cent smoking in this study (but it is
adequate to rule out an effect similar to
that of PG-13–rated movies). It also does
not empirically test what might be found
if smoking in G/PG movies was in-
creased to the point that it was pro-
vided similar to exposure in other
types of movies. Thus, the study cannot
be used as a justification for adding
more smoking to G/PG-rated movies.
Finally, this study cannot tell us exactly
what contextual situations are most
problematic, as the study by Shadel
et al2 was able to do.
With the elimination of image-based to-bacco marking, the epidemic of smoking
is maintained, in part, by movie images
of smoking. This study suggests that it is
the depiction of smoking in movies, not
other contextual variables, that matters
for the onset of youth smoking. It sug-
gests greater emphasis on reducing
exposure to smoking in PG-13–rated
movies through an unambiguous R rat-
ing for smoking52 and less emphasis on
images of smoking commonly found in
G- and PG-rated movies, which contrib-
ute little to exposure. Finally, even if the
MPAA agrees to modernize its volun-
tary film rating system to eliminate
smoking from youth-rated films, youth
will still receive some exposure to
smoking from R-rated movies, so it is
also important to motivate and assist
parents in restricting access to these
movies, which would further reduce
adolescent exposure to onscreen
smoking.53–59
0.221.23
1.13
df
  1. click here for more information on this paper
    1. click here for more information on this paper
 6.5322.55
22.37
0.74
21
1
1
.038.011
.018
.458
 MSE entered as a continuous variable and scaled so that each 1-point increment represents 500 movie smokingoccurrences.
experimental study found an effect forsmoking in a PG-13–rated movie.46 These
2 experimental studies, combined with
our population-level results, suggest
that the explanation is that smoking
images delivered by G/PG cartoons
and other family-oriented films fail to
effectively communicate favorable ex-
pectancies or utilities for smoking. Thus,
the emphasis afforded to cartoon smok-
ing in previous studies47,48 may be mis-
placed from a public health standpoint.
234
SARGENT et al
This finding also suggests that onlyeliminating smoking from G/PG-rated
films would not reduce the effects of
smoking in movies on youth smoking;
there is little MSE in G/PG-rated films6,49
and what imagery is there is not partic-
ularly salient. Thus, the only effective
ratings option for the MPAA in limiting the
impact of MSE is an R rating for smoking.
The causal inference for movie smokingand youth smoking mentioned earlier1
cannot be made from 1 study alone, but
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ARTICLE
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