Clarifier of Electoral Choices

What do Political Scientists say are the expected functions of the Media in a democratic system. Make sure you consider the media’s role as:

A Watchdog
Clarifier of Electoral Choices
Explainers of Policy

Next, weigh the intervening factors (corporate ownership, mergers and acquisitions, various “templates” such as “infotainment”, practices like Framing, Priming, and Agenda Setting) that might keep the media from properly fulfilling its expected roles.

The Struggle for Democracy

Twelfth Edition

Chapter 5

Public Opinion

Learning Objectives

5.1 Describe public opinion research and modern methods of polling.

5.2 Explain how the agents of socialization influence the development of political attitudes.

5.3 Describe the forces that create and shape political attitudes.

5.4 Assess whether the public is capable of playing a meaningful role in steering public policy.

Learning Objective 5.1

Describe public opinion research and modern methods of polling.

Measuring Public Opinion

Public Opinion Polls

Challenges of Political Polling

Attempts to assess public opinion by listening to the most belligerent citizens is likely to produce a skewed picture. The people who write letters to newspapers or call in to radio talk shows are not necessarily representative. To measure public opinion accurately, social scientists rely on random samples rather than vocal minorities.

It should be easy to see why public opinion is important in a democracy. If democracy is rule by the people, the government must be responsive to the wishes of the people. Elections are one barometer of public opinion, and polling surveys are another.

Although we have a strong ideological commitment to rule by the people in a democracy, we have to ask ourselves if the people are always informed enough to make wise policy choices. Surveys of public opinion have consistently revealed a high level of misinformation and ignorance. How do we reconcile our commitment to democracy with the problem of public ignorance?

Public Opinion Polls

Scientific survey

Systematic interviews

Standardized questions

Random sample of respondents

Probability sampling

Sampling error

Public opinion is usually measured with polls that use a small sample of only 1,000 to 1,500 people who are randomly chosen. Trained professional interviewers ask a set of standardized questions. Such surveys have proven to be accurate in measuring public opinion.

For accuracy, the sample must be truly random, so that each member of the population has an equal chance of being included. If you conducted a sample survey on a college campus, the results would not be representative of public opinion in the country as a whole because the sample would be biased in favor of young people, among other biases. To some extent, researchers can weight the results to correct for under- or overrepresentation of certain populations.

Challenges of Political Polling

Issues of sampling

Telemarketing makes respondents wary

Caller ID

Cell phones and the Internet

Issues of wording

Leading words

Closed-ended questions

Issues of intensity and timing

Range of answers

Rank importance of issues

Timing

The wording of a question makes a big difference in how it is answered so researchers must be careful to avoid leading words.

Getting a good sample of respondents is becoming harder. Americans are screening their calls more now and increasingly using cell phones. It is more expensive for researchers to call cell phones since they are prohibited from autodialing them. Respondents are also unwilling to use minutes to answer surveys. Some polling organizations are turning to the Internet but the barriers to getting a random sample over the Internet are still large.

Closed-ended questions that force the respondent to make a choice among answers may not capture the respondent’s true opinion on an issue or may cause the respondent to express an opinion when they do not really have one. The use of open-ended questions and focus groups helps to mitigate this problem.

Survey questions often do not capture how strongly a respondent feels about an issue. To capture intensity, surveys sometimes offer a range of choices from “strongly agree” to “strongly disagree.” Surveys also sometimes ask respondents to rank policy issues in order of importance.

Can Online Surveys “Work”?

Some firms are working on ways to field online surveys that yield accurate estimates of public opinion. For example, YouGov is a web-based survey firm with a diverse pool of millions of panelists who have agreed to complete surveys about topics ranging from their favorite foods and companies to their attitudes about current events. When they conduct a survey they invite a pool of individuals from their panel that has characteristics that mirror those of the national public to participate. They then use statistical techniques to correct for any remaining differences between those who complete the survey and the broader public. This approach is far cheaper than telephone or face-to-face surveys and the conclusions these surveys reach about public opinion tend to be similar to those found using more traditional methods. However, because respondents are not actually drawn from the public at random, some worry that respondents may not be truly representative of the broader public.

Telephone surveys face a number of daunting challenges. Which do you think we should be more skeptical of: the results of telephone surveys or the results of carefully conducted online surveys?

The Pollsters Get It Wrong

Harry Truman ridicules an edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune that proclaims his Republican challenger, Thomas Dewey, president. Opinion polls stopped asking questions too early in the 1948 election campaign, missing Truman’s last-minute surge. Top pollsters today survey likely voters right to the end of the campaign.

Can you think of any recent examples where a candidate appeared to have a comfortable lead in the polls, only to see it melt away in the weeks leading up to Election Day?

Figure 5.1 Applying the Framework: Why No Gun Control Legislation?

A substantial majority of Americans support policies like background checks for gun purchases, but these policies typically fail to become law—most recently when the Manchin-Toomey amendment (which would have expanded background checks for gun purchases) failed to garner enough support in the Senate.

Learning Objective 5.2

Explain how the agents of socialization influence the development of political attitudes.

Political Socialization: Learning Political Beliefs and Attitudes

Political socialization

Agents of socialization

Family

Schools

Popular culture

College education

Major events

Generational effect

Political attitudes do not form in a vacuum. Political socialization starts when we are very young and continues throughout our lives. The family is very important in shaping political attitudes. A majority of adults share the same political party affiliation as their parents. The attitudes of our parents towards government, the rich, the poor, taxes, patriotism, religion, all shape our own views. The socio-economic environment in which we grow up affects our perspective on public policy, as does our race, ethnicity, and the structure of our family.

Schools are another critical agent of political socialization. In school we learn about American political identity and patriotism, we study American history, and we begin to learn about the political process.

Popular culture, as expressed through advertising, music, movies, and television, also affects our political attitudes. Some performers are overtly political but even when the political content is more subtle, it has a significant effect.

College education shapes political attitudes. College-educated Americans are more likely to support public policies that protect the environment, for example.

Major events, such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks, can have a long-term effect on political attitudes. When a generation comes of age around the time of a major event such as a war, or during a period of economic depression, the attitudes of the entire generation can be affected, which we term a generational effect. People who grew up during the 1960s, for example, are more likely to be liberal than previous and subsequent generations.

Learning About Democracy

Children gain many of their initial ideas about the American political system in their elementary school classrooms. In those early grades, children gain impressions about the nation, its most important symbols (such as the flag), and its most visible and well-known presidents. They also learn the rudiments of democracy.

How might educating an entire generation of young Americans to be active participants in the American political system change the face of American politics?

Learning Objective 5.3

Describe the forces that create and shape political attitudes.

How and Why People’s Political Attitudes Differ

Party Identification

Race and Ethnicity

Social Class

Geography

Education

Gender

Age

Religion

We have discussed the fact that Americans share a set of core beliefs, and that we encounter agents of political socialization throughout our lives that shape our political attitudes. The environment in which we live also affects our political opinions. In this section, we look at how different demographic characteristics affect political attitudes.

Party Identification

Affiliation reflects differing political attitudes

Democrats more liberal

Republicans more conservative

Differences growing wider

Partisan leaners

Party is a convenient predictor of political attitudes. Citizens who identify with the Democratic party tend to be both socially and economically more liberal than those who adhere to the Republican party. The differences in issue positions between adherents to each party is widening and partisanship is becoming a bigger issue in public policy, with less bipartisanship occurring.

Partisan leaners are individuals who say they do not identify as Democrats or Republicans, but say they feel closer to either the Democratic or Republican Party.

Table 5.1 Partisanship and Issue Positions

	Republican	Democrat
% Identifying as conservative	71%	16%
% Who say the government in Washington ought to reduce the income differences between the rich and the poor	22%	63%
% Who say government should help people with medical bills	17%	62%
% Who say the law should require a person to obtain a police permit before he or she can buy a gun	62%	86%
% Who favor legalizing marijuana	40%	63%
% Who say a woman should be able to have an abortion for any reason	28%	54%

SOURCE: General Social Survey (2014).

There are clear issue difference between partisans.

Race and Ethnicity

African Americans

Hispanic Americans

Asian Americans

African Americans share the same core beliefs as other Americans. Where their attitudes differ is in the role that government should play in making America more equal. African Americans tend to support the Democratic party. Blacks tend to be liberal on economic issues but conservative on social issues, due to their religious views.

Hispanics are the largest and fastest-growing minority. They tend to identity with the Democratic party, but they are more diverse than other minorities. Cuban Americans, for example, tend to be more conservative and Republican, although some evidence exists that support for Republicans is waning. Hispanics are predominantly Roman Catholic and as such tend to be conservative on social issues but more liberal on economic issues.

Asian Americans also come from diverse backgrounds, even more so than Hispanics. Asian Americans are the most educated and affluent minority but they tend to vote less and take less interest in politics than others of their class. They have historically been split fairly evenly between the Republican and Democratic parties, tending to be liberal on economic issues and conservative on social ones, but have been trending more Democratic in recent elections.

Figure 5.2 Trends in the Relationship Between Party Identification and Political Ideology

SOURCE: General Social Survey, Cumulative Data File (1974–2014).

Party identification and political ideology are becoming more closely related. Republican identifiers—already more conservative than Democratic party identifiers in the 1970s—have become dramatically more likely to identify themselves as conservative. At the same time, Democrats are becoming more liberal. This deep ideological divide between the parties has become a key feature of modern American politics and contributes to much of the incivility and intensity of public affairs in recent years.

Political Socialization: Learning Political Beliefs and Attitudes LO 5.3: Analyze the process of political socialization The Spectrum of Political Ideologies (Political Ideology: A system of interrelated and coherently organized political beliefs and attitudes).

Figure 5.3 Party Identification Among Various Demographic Groups, 2012

SOURCE: General Social Survey (2014).

This figure displays how partisanship varies across demographic groups in the United States. We include “partisan leaners” with partisan respondents. Party identification varies across demographic groups. Most notably, black Americans overwhelmingly identify as Democrats.

Figure 5.4 The Racial and Ethnic Divide

Source: Data from General Social Survey (2014).

Public opinion polls reveal substantial differences in attitudes across racial and ethnic groups on some issues, but less of a gap on others. (Figure shows percent agreeing with each statement)

Social Class

Most identify as middle class

Most are aware that gap between rich and poor is widening

Income and party linked

Lower income = Democrat

Higher income = Republican

Union members vote Democratic

More educated = more socially liberal

Economic views more complicated

Americans do not tend to think of themselves as belonging to a social class until asked to identify with one by survey researchers, in which case more than half consider themselves to be middle class. About two-thirds of Americans believe that the gap between rich and poor is widening.

Income and party affiliation are strongly connected, with most people in the lower brackets identifying as Democrats and those in the upper income brackets identifying as Republicans. Employees who are members of unions tend to vote Democratic, although union membership in America is small compared to other rich countries, and declining.

Lower-income Americans tend to favor greater government assistance in such policy areas as employment, housing, education, and medical care, but they tend to be religiously and culturally conservative and to favor Republican social policies even as they support Democratic economic policies.

The more educated people are, the more socially liberal they tend to be. To a certain extent, the opposite is true with economic issues, but there are many exceptions, such as non-college educated, lower income whites who are opposed to economic policies like affirmative action and welfare.

Geography

Each region has distinct political attitudes

The South

Conservative socially and economically

Opposed to civil rights

Strongly Republican

Other regions

Northeast, Midwest, Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain states

Regional differences are declining

Each region of the United States has distinctive political attitudes.

The legacy of slavery, a large black population, and late industrialization have all contributed to making the South a distinct region. White southerners are the most conservative on social issues, and remain unenthusiastic about civil rights. They are slightly more liberal on economic issues, due to the fact that incomes are lowest in the South.

The Northwest is the polar opposite of the South, tending to be Democratic and both economically and socially liberal. The Midwest is right in between the two. The Pacific Coast is between the Midwest and Northeast in attitude, and the Rocky Mountain States tend to be very anti-federal government for historic reasons.

Due to migration among states, regional differences are declining.

Figure 5.5 Presidential Election Results by County, 2016

NOTE: Data accurate as of November 23, 2016.

SOURCE: Data from Dave Leip, Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, http://www.electionsatlas.org/2016.php.

This map shows presidential election results from 2016 at the county level. Notice how some states that we that we often think about as liberal—e.g., California and New York—have many counties where Trump won more votes than Clinton. Conversely, Texas—often thought of as a “deep red” state—has several counties (primarily in urban areas) where Democratic candidates tend to do well.

Gender

Partisan gender gap

Women who identify as Republicans 7% lower than men

Differences show up in elections – only 42% of women voted for Trump

Differences in policy preferences

Women support protective policies

Women opposed to violence

Gender gap on abortion quite small

Women identify with the Democratic party more than men and this small partisan gender gap is widening as more white men leave the Democratic party.

Women tend to be more supportive than men of policies to protect the poor, the elderly, and the disabled. Women are also more opposed to violence, favoring diplomacy over warfare and opposing the death penalty.

Surprisingly, the gender gap on the issue of abortion is quite small.

Figure 5.6 The Gender Gap

SOURCE: Data from General Social Survey (2014).

Although surveys find some differences between the political attitudes of men and women, they tend to be modest and do not appear across all issues. (Figure shows percent agreeing with each statement)

Age

Younger citizens lean Democratic

Different policy concerns by age

Generational effects

Views on civil rights, homosexuality, environment vary by age

Political participation increases with age, so younger citizens are less likely to vote or identify with a political party. When they do identify with a party, younger citizens are more likely to be Democrats, and to have more liberal views on both economic and social issues than older citizens.

Policy concerns vary by age, with older Americans more concerned with Social Security and Medicare and younger ones more interested in the draft and the drinking age.

Age-related views are shaped by generation. Young people today are more concerned about the environment than previous generations, and less concerned about the arms race and nuclear war. The views of older people are not completely fixed. Attitudes toward homosexuality, for example, have changed in all age groups, even though younger citizens tend to have a more liberal attitude toward same-sex marriage.

Figure 5.7 The Age Gap

SOURCE: Data from General Social Survey (2014).

On some issues, like gun laws, there is little evidence of a divide between the attitudes of older and younger Americans. On others, like legalizing marijuana, surveys find huge differences. (Figure shows percent agreeing with each statement)

Religion

Religious denominations matter in politics

Religiously committed versus the less committed and secular

More religious = more conservative

Catholics used to be heavily Democratic but as their income has risen they have become about evenly split between the two parties. Although Catholics tend to support legislation that promotes morality, they are more liberal on social issues than their church’s teachings would suggest.

The non-religiously affiliated tend to be more Democratic and socially liberal. In fact, the more religiously committed people are, regardless of denomination, the more conservative and Republican they tend to be.

Liberal Believers

Although they are a distinct minority among believers, an increasing number of religiously committed people of all denominations take liberal positions on matters such as global warming, economic inequality, and immigration reform. In December 2013, religiously motivated activists petitioned Congress to bring comprehensive immigration reform to a vote by carrying crosses across the National Mall in front of the U.S. Capitol.

How does the use of explicitly religious symbols by political activists affect your view of religion as it relates to public policy?

Journal 5.6: Liberal Believers

How does the use of explicitly religious symbols by political activists affect your view of religion as it relates to public policy?

Figure 5.8 Religious Attendance and the Presidential Election, 2016 (Percentage Voting for Each Candidate)

SOURCE: ”Election 2016: Exit Polls.” New York Times, November 8, 2016. http://www.nytimes/interactive/2016/11//08/us/politics/eletion-exit-polls.html.

In the 2016 presidential election, 56 percent of individuals who reported attending religious services once a week or more voted for Trump, whereas only 40 percent of these people reported voting for Clinton. In contrast, 62 percent of those who said they never attend religious services reported voting for Clinton; Trump won only 31 percent of the votes from those who never attend religious services.

Learning Objective 5.4

Assess whether the public is capable of playing a meaningful role in steering public policy.

The Contours of Public Opinion: Are Americans Fit to Rule?

The People’s Knowledge About Politics

The People’s Attitudes About the Political System

The People’s Liberalism and Conservativism

The People’s Policy Preferences

The People’s “Fitness to Rule” Revisited

Recall that the framers were concerned about the abilities of the average citizen to make rational political decisions. People have a tendency to be misinformed, to be prone to rapid and irrational changes in political attitudes, and to be easily led astray. Should these people really play a central role in determining public policies? In this section, we look for evidence that these fears may be exaggerated.

The People’s Knowledge About Politics

Americans ignorant and apathetic

Information age has not helped

Is missing knowledge vital?

Not going to change

Political ideology

Not consistent

Is the public rational?

Polls have repeatedly shown that Americans know little about politics and care even less. The proliferation of available sources of information in the last few decades has not helped improve Americans’ knowledge of their government and its policies.

Some have argued that the knowledge Americans lack is not vital to political decision-making but it is hard to claim that Americans can make rational decisions about Social Security when 54% of recipients do not understand it is a government program. There are major consequences that result from people’s lack of political knowledge; it is a tremendous problem. But it is not going to change anytime soon so we have to take low levels of information and attention into account.

Americans tend to think that they subscribe to a consistent political ideology—that is, a coherent system of attitudes and beliefs about politics—but they rarely do. Most people are liberal on some issues and conservative on others. Some are unable to recognize let alone explain their opposition to government programs from which they benefit.

Is the public rational? Some researchers suggest that collective public opinion is more rational than individual opinions; however, since collective opinion is the aggregate of individual opinions, this argument carries little weight.

The People’s Attitudes About the Political System

The people’s trust in government

The people’s opinions about the direction of the country

Congressional approval ratings

Presidential approval ratings

Americans tend to be prouder of their nationality than citizens of other countries, and more likely to believe that their culture is superior to others. Ironically, Americans are also more likely to claim that voting is important, even though Americans vote at lower levels than in many other democracies.

But Americans’ pessimism and distrust of government has been rising dramatically in recent decades. Trust in the government’s ability to solve the nation’s problems has fallen from 70% in the 1960s to around 24% today.

One more important aspect of happiness or unhappiness with government is a judgment about how well Congress is doing. In 2016, only 17 percent of Americans believed that Congress was doing a good job.

Another indicator of government performance is the presidential job approval rating, or how well Americans judge the president to be doing his or her job. The public’s evaluations of presidents’ handling of their jobs depend on how well things are actually going. The state of the economy is especially important: when the country is prosperous and ordinary Americans are doing well and feeling confident about the future, the president tends to be popular; when there is high inflation or unemployment or when general living standards remain stagnant, the president’s popularity falls.

Figure 5.9 Public Trust in Government

SOURCE: Data from Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, “Trust in Government, 1958–2015,” Pew Research Center, November 23, 2015, based on polling by Gallup, the Pew Research Center, National Election Studies, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, and CNN.

This graph shows the percentage of Americans who answered “just about always” or “most of the time” to the question: How much of the time do you trust the government in Washington?

Popular to the End

Ronald Reagan came close but still trailed Clinton in the presidential approval ratings game.

How can a president retain popularity in the face of conflict among the electorate?

The People’s Liberalism and Conservatism

Ideology not rigid but attitudes divided

Divide along government’s role in economy and society

Economic conservatives

Economic liberals

Social liberals

Social conservatives

Opinions on economic and social issues do not always go together

Although they do not hold to a rigid political ideology, Americans differ in their views on the role of government in the economy and society.

Economic conservatives tend to oppose government regulation of the economy. They believe that the free market functions best without government interference. Economic liberals, on the other hand, value the importance of government regulations to limit damaging business practices. They tend to identify more with workers than business owners in their support for health, safety, and pollution regulations, and a minimum wage. Government spending to help the disadvantaged and to regulate the economy are two of the biggest sources of differing political attitudes in the United States.

Social conservatives and social liberals differ over issues such as the separation of church and state, reproductive health care, civil rights, and political dissent.

Most Americans hold a mix of liberal and conservative views. The gay owner of a small business might be socially liberal but economically conservative on issues like taxes and regulations that affect his business. A preacher in a poor neighborhood might be socially conservative on issues like homosexuality but have liberal views on government programs that aid the poor.

LO 5.5

 Back to Learning Objectives

Positioning Prominent Americans – Table 5.2

 Back to Learning Objectives

LO 5.3

Popular Culture and Major Events shape people’s attitudes as well. Music, movies and advertising can have strong effects if well circulated in society, like Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth.” Major Events can change people’s thinking as well, such as the attack on 9/11.

Less effective, but there could be some change, are the effects that jobs, the News Media and a person’s time of life may have. Sometimes a person’s job could affect their political attitudes, like if you work in the defense industry, or for and environmental firm. The news media could have an affect, but people tend not to watch what they don’t like, so many believe it only reinforces what we do think. People’s outlooks can also change depending upon how old they are and what stage of life they are in. Younger people don’t think so much about long term policies and government. Middle aged people look at what is best to safeguard their families, jobs and the nation. Older people are very politically active and concerned about national safety, Medicare and social security.

Political Socialization – The process by which individuals come to have certain core beliefs and political attitudes.

Agents of Socialization – Those institutions and individuals that shape the core beliefs and attitudes of people: family, school, employment, popular culture, news media, etc…

The People’s Policy Preferences

Spending programs

Social issues

Foreign policy and national security

Isolationism

Unilateralist

Multilateralist

More Americans identify themselves as conservative or moderate than liberal, yet most want government to do more to address a variety of societal needs, such as fighting crime, providing health care and environmental protection, conducting medical research, and reducing unemployment.

Few Americans embrace isolationism, but they are divided on whether the U.S. should adopt a unilateralist approach to foreign policy or a multilateralist approach.

Americans tend to think more money is being spent on foreign aid than the 1% of the annual federal budget that is actually spent, and they tend to oppose foreign aid and arms sales abroad. Support for regulation of business increases predictably after financial disasters and scandals.

Figure 5.10 Share of Public Saying We Spend Too Little in Six Policy Areas

SOURCE: General Social Survey, Cumulative Data File (1972–2014).

Large, fairly stable majorities of Americans have said that the government is spending too little on health care and education, but over the years relatively few have said we spend too little on defense, welfare, or foreign aid.

Figure 5.11 Trends in Attitudes About Social Issues

SOURCE: General Social Survey, Cumulative Data File (1972–2014).

On some issues—most notably abortion and gun policy—American attitudes have remained relatively stable for the last several decades. However, attitudes about same-sex marriage, the role of women in society, and marijuana legalization have changed rapidly.

The People’s “Fitness to Rule” Reevaluated

Is confidence warranted?

Public opinion stable over time

Changes when events dictate

People are fit to rule – Do you agree?

Given the fact that public opinion tends to be stable over time and to change in a predictable way in response to significant events, the conclusion can be drawn that the people are, indeed, fit to rule. After studying this chapter, do you agree? Why or why not?

Shared Writing (1 of 2)

Following the Great Depression of the 1930s, the U.S. government increased its regulatory oversight over the U.S. financial system. Moreover, until the spectacular failure of the U.S. economy in 2008, government regulation of the U.S. financial system had generally been credited with successfully preventing large-scale financial collapses in the United States.

Many economists believe that deregulation of the financial industry, engineered in the 1990s by those who proposed that regulation was stifling financial innovations like derivatives and mortgage-backed securities, was key to the 2008 collapse, allowing reckless behavior by financial institutions to fuel an unprecedented crisis. Repeal, in 1999, of the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act was the final step in a decade-long series of deregulatory government actions.

Interestingly, the deregulation of the financial industry in the 1990s was done largely out of public view. Public opinion did not drive the change nor did polling show much public interest in the matter at the time. While segments of the public have remained angry with Wall Street after the 2008 financial collapse and the Great Recession associated with it, other segments focused its anger, not on Wall Street, but on the government. Gallup reported in 2011, for example, that 70 percent of Americans believed that “government creates more problems than it solves.”

Shared Writing (2 of 2)

Think about what you may have read, heard, and learned about the role of government in regulating the financial industry inside and outside of the classroom. Then judge for yourself whether Americans’ lack of confidence in the ability of the government to play a constructive role in regulating the economy is justified.

Now construct a brief argument for or against this proposition: U.S. financial markets are largely self-correcting. Further government regulation of the financial industry, therefore, not only hurts innovation but slows recovery following economic downturns. How would you defend your position to a fellow student? What would be your main line of argument? What evidence do you believe best supports your position?

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