FIN 435 Case Study

This case written assignment is on Arcadian Microarray Technologies, In. (Case 44).

 

Report Requirements:

·       Cover sheet with case name, date, team number and team members;

 

 

 

·       One or two page written report analyzing questions given; and

 

·       Exhibit with any financials, ratios, charts/graphs that you address in your report.

 

 

 

Your analysis should cover the following concerns:

1.

3.     1.. Regarding the cash flow forecasts in case Exhibit 5, at what point in the future would you set the forecast horizon for the three investments? Why? More generally, what should determine when you stop forecasting annual cash flows and estimate a terminal value?

4.    2. Estimate other terminal values based on alternate estimation approaches. From these various estimates, please triangulate toward a single composite estimate of terminal value for each of Sierra Capital and Arcadian’s forecasts.

What is the resulting present value (PV) of cash flows under Sierra Capital and Arcadian’s outlook?

How significant was TV in creating the difference between the two present value estimates?

5.    3.  As a general matter in valuation work, how much attention should terminal value garner? What short list of questions about TV could you keep on hand in case a client asked you to opine on a valuation of that company?

 

Case Studies in Finance links managerial decisions to capital markets and the expectations of investors. At the core of almost all of the cases is a valuation task that requires students to look to financial markets for guidance in resolving the case problem. These cases also invite students to apply modern information technology to the analysis of managerial decisions. In the Seventh Edition, 25% of the cases are new with many dating from 2011–2012, ensuring that your students are learning from the most relevant and current sources.

Visit the Online Learning Center at www.mhhe.com/bruner7e to see a complete list of changes to the Seventh Edition and to access study and teaching tools.

Bruner Eades S chi l l

Case Studies in Finance

managing for corporate value creation

s even th ed i t i on

Bruner Eades Schil l

Case Studies in Finance managing for corporate value creation

seventh edition

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Case Studies in Finance

Managing for Corporate Value Creation

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Case Studies in Finance

Managing for Corporate Value Creation

Seventh Edition

Robert F. Bruner Kenneth M. Eades Michael J. Schill

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CASE STUDIES IN FINANCE: MANAGING FOR CORPORATE VALUE CREATION, SEVENTH EDITION

Published by McGraw-Hill, a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, 10020. Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Previous editions © 2002, 1989, and 1975. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., including, but not limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broad- cast for distance learning.

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Bruner, Robert F., 1949- Case studies in finance : managing for corporate value creation / Robert F. Bruner, Kenneth M. Eades,

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Includes index. ISBN-13: 978-0-07-786171-1 (alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-07-786171-X (alk. paper) 1. Corporations––Finance––Case studies. 2. International business enterprises––Finance––Case studies.

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The Internet addresses listed in the text were accurate at the time of publication. The inclusion of a website does not indicate an endorsement by the authors or McGraw-Hill, and McGraw-Hill does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented at these sites.

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vii

In dedication to our wives

Barbara M. Bruner Kathy N. Eades

Mary Ann H. Schill

and to our children

Dedication

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Robert F. Bruner is Dean of the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, Distinguished Professor of Business Administration and Charles C. Abbott Professor of Business Administration at the University of Virginia. He has taught and written in various areas, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, investing in emerg- ing markets, innovation, and technology transfer. In addition to Case Studies in Finance, his books include Finance Interactive, multimedia tutorial software in Finance (Irwin/ McGraw-Hill 1997), The Portable MBA (Wiley 2003), Applied Mergers and Acquisitions, (Wiley, 2004), Deals from Hell: M&A Lessons that Rise Above the Ashes (Wiley, 2005) and The Panic of 1907 (Wiley, 2007). He has been recognized in the United States and Europe for his teaching and case writing. BusinessWeek magazine cited him as one of the “masters of the MBA classroom.” He is the author or co-author of over 400 case studies and notes. His research has been published in journals such as Financial Man- agement, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, and Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Industrial corporations, financial institutions, and government agencies have retained him for counsel and training. He has been on the faculty of the Darden School since 1982, and has been a visiting professor at various schools including Columbia, INSEAD, and IESE. Formerly he was a loan officer and investment analyst for First Chicago Corporation. He holds the B.A. degree from Yale University and the M.B.A. and D.B.A. degrees from Harvard University. Copies of his papers and essays may be obtained from his website, http://www.darden.virginia.edu/ web/Faculty-Research/Directory/Full-time/Robert-F-Bruner/. He may be reached via email at brunerr@virginia.edu.

About the Authors

Kenneth M. Eades is Professor of Business Administration and Area Coordinator of the Finance Department of the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of Virginia. He has taught a variety of corporate finance topics including: capital structure, dividend policy, risk management, capital investments and firm valuation. His research interests are in the area of corporate finance where he has published articles in The Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, and Financial Management. In addition to Case Studies in Finance, his books include The Portable MBA (Wiley 2010) Finance Interactive, a multimedia tutorial software in Finance (Irwin/McGraw-Hill 1997) and Case Studies in Financial Decision Making (Dry- den Press, 1994). He has written numerous case studies as well as a web-based, interactive tutorial on the pricing of financial derivatives. He has received the Wachovia Award for Excellence in Teaching Materials and the Wachovia Award for Excellence in Research. Mr. Eades is active in executive education programs at the Darden School and has served as a consultant to a number of corporations and institutions; including many commercial banks and investment banks; Fortune 500 companies and the Internal Revenue Service. Prior to joining Darden in 1988, Professor Eades was a member of the faculties at The University

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of Michigan and the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He has a B.S. from the University of Kentucky and Ph.D. from Purdue University. His website is http://www.darden.virginia.edu/web/Faculty-Research/Directory/Full-time/Kenneth-M- Eades/ and he may be reached via email at eades@virginia.edu.

Michael J. Schill is Associate Professor of Business Administration of the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of Virginia where he teaches corporate finance and investments. His research spans empirical questions in corporate finance, investments, and international finance. He is the author of numerous articles that have been published in leading finance journals such as Journal of Business, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, and Review of Financial Studies, and cited by major media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal. Some of his recent research projects investigate the market pricing of firm growth and the corporate gains to foreign stock exchange listing or foreign currency borrowing. He has been on the faculty of the Darden School since 2001 and was previously with the University of California, Riverside, as well as a visiting professor at Cambridge and Melbourne. Prior to his doctoral work, he was a management consultant with Marakon Associates in Stamford and London. He continues to be active in consult- ing and executive education for major corporations. He received a B.S. degree from Brigham Young University, an M.B.A. from INSEAD, and a Ph.D. from University of Washington. More details are available from his website, http://www.darden.vir- ginia.edu/web/Faculty-Research/Directory/Full-time/ Michael-J-Schill/. He may be reached via email at schill@virginia.edu.

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Dedication vii About the Authors viii Contents x Foreword xiii Preface xiv Note to the Student: How To Study and Discuss Cases xxv Ethics in Finance xxxii

Setting Some Themes 1. Warren E. Buffett, 2005 To think like an investor 3 2. Bill Miller and Value Trust Market efficiency 23 3. Ben & Jerry’s Homemade Value creation and governance 39 4. The Battle for Value, 2004: FedEx Corp. vs. Value creation and economic profit 53

United Parcel Service, Inc. 5. Genzyme and Relational Investors: Science Value creation, business strategy and activist investors 75

and Business Collide?

Financial Analysis and Forecasting 6. The Thoughtful Forecaster Forecasting principles 101 7. The Financial Detective, 2005 Ratio analysis 119 8. Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Financial statement analysis 125 9. The Body Shop International PLC 2001: Introduction to forecasting 143

An Introduction to Financial Modeling 10. Value Line Publishing: October 2002 Financial ratios and forecasting 161 11. Horniman Horticulture Analysis of growth and bank financing 175 12. Guna Fibres, Ltd. Forecasting seasonal financing needs 181

Estimating the Cost of Capital 13. “Best Practices” in Estimating the Cost Estimating the cost of capital 193

of Capital: Survey and Synthesis” 14. Roche Holdings AG: Funding the Genentech Cost of debt capital 219

Acquisition 15. Nike, Inc.: Cost of Capital Cost of capital for the firm 235 16. Teletech Corporation, 2005 Business segments and risk-return tradeoffs 243 17. The Boeing 7E7 Project specific risk-return 257

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Contents

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Capital Budgeting and Resource Allocation 18. The Investment Detective Investment criteria and discounted cash flow 283 19. Worldwide Paper Company Analysis of an expansion investment 285 20. Target Corporation Multifaceted capital investment decisions 289 21 Aurora Textile Company Analysis of an investment in a declining industry 311 22. Compass Records Analysis of working capital investment 323 23 The Procter and Gamble Company: Scenario analysis in a project decision 337

Investment in Crest Whitestrips Advanced Seal

24. Victoria Chemicals plc (A): Relevant cash flows 349 The Merseyside Project

25 Victoria Chemicals plc (B): The Merseyside Mutually exclusive investment opportunities 357 and Rotterdam Projects

26. Star River Electronics Ltd. Capital project analysis and forecasting 365 27. The Jacobs Division 2010 Strategic planning 373 28. University of Virginia Health System: Analysis of an investment in a not-for-profit 381

The Long-Term Acute Care Hospital organization Project

Management of the Firm’s Equity: Dividends and Repurchases 29. Gainesboro Machine Tools Corporation Dividend payout decision 393 30. AutoZone, Inc. Dividend and stock buyback decisions 409

Management of the Corporate Capital Structure 31. An Introduction to Debt Policy and Value Effects of debt tax shields 425 32. Structuring Corporate Financial Policy: Concepts in setting financial policy 431

Diagnosis of Problems and Evaluation of Strategies

33. California Pizza Kitchen Optimal leverage 449 34. The Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company: Capital Leveraged restructuring 467

Structure, Valuation, and Cost of Capital 35. Deluxe Corporation Financial flexibility 479 36. Horizon Lines, Inc. Bankruptcy/restructuring 497

Analysis of Financing Tactics: Leases, Options, and Foreign Currency 37. Carrefour S.A. Currency risk management 513 38. Baker Adhesives Hedging foreign currency cash flows 523 39. J&L Railroad Risk management and hedging commodity risk 529 40. Primus Automation Division, 2002 Economics of lease financing 541 41. MoGen, Inc. Convertible bond valuation and financial engineering 553

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8Valuing the Enterprise: Acquisitions and Buyouts42. Methods of Valuation for Mergers Valuation principles 569and Acquisitions43. American Greetings Firm valuation in stock repurchase decision 589 44. Arcadian Microarray Technologies, Inc. Evaluating terminal values 599 45. JetBlue Airways IPO Valuation Initial public offering valuation 617 46. Rosetta Stone: Pricing the 2009 IPO Initial public offering valuation 635 47. The Timken Company Financing an acquisition 655 48. Sun Microsystems Valuing a takeover opportunity 671 49. Hershey Foods Corporation: Bitter Corporate governance influence 693

Times in a Sweet Place 50. Flinder Valves and Controls Inc. Valuing the enterprise for sale 715 51. Palamon Capital Partners/TeamSystem Valuing a private equity investment 727

S.p.A. 52. Purinex, Inc. Financing the early-stage firm 745 53. Medfield Pharmaceuticals Valuing strategic alternatives 755

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The half-decade from 2008 to 2013 forced a series of “teachable moments” into the consciousness of leaders in both business and government. More such moments may be in the offing, given the unresolved issues stemming from the global financial crisis. What lessons shall we draw from these moments? And how shall we teach the lessons so that the next generation of leaders can implement wiser policies?

One theme implicit in most critiques and policy recommendations of this period entails the con- sequences of financial illiteracy. At few other times in financial history have we seen so strong an affir- mation of Derek Bok’s famous argument, “If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.” The actions and behavior of consumers, investors, financial intermediaries, and regulators suggest ignorance (naïve or otherwise) of such basic financial concepts as time value of money, risk-adjusted returns, cost of capital, capital adequacy, solvency, optionality, capital market efficiency, and so on. If ignorance is bliss, teachers of finance face a delirious world.

Now more than ever, the case method of teaching corporate finance is critical to meeting the diverse educational challenges of our day. The cases presented in this volume address the richness of the problems that practitioners face and help to develop the student in three critical areas:

• Knowledge. The conceptual and computational building blocks of finance are the necessary foun- dation for professional competence. The cases in this volume afford solid practice with the breadth and depth of this foundational knowledge. And they link the practical application of tools and con- cepts to a contextual setting for analysis. Such real-world linkage is an important advantage of case studies over textbook problem sets.

• Skills. Case studies demand decisions and recommendations. Too many analysts are content to calculate or estimate without helping a decision-maker fully understand the implications of the analysis. By placing the student in the position of the decision-maker, the case study promotes confidence and competence in making decisions. Furthermore, class discussions of cases promote skills in communication, selling and defending ideas, giving feedback, negotiating, and getting re- sults through teamwork—these are social skills that are best learned in face-to-face engagement.

• Attributes of character. Popular outrage over the crisis focused on shady ethics. The duty of agents, diligence in the execution of professional responsibilities, breaches of trust, the temptations of self- dealing, and outright fraud intrude into retrospective assessments of what might otherwise be dry and technical analyses of the last decade. It is no longer possible or desirable to teach finance as a purely technical subject devoid of ethical considerations. Ultimately, teaching is a moral act: by choosing worthy problems, modeling behavior, and challenging the thinking of students, the teacher strength- ens students in ways that are vitally important for the future of society. The case method builds attrib- utes of character such as work ethic and persistence; empathy for classmates and decision-makers; social awareness of the consequences of decisions and the challenging context for decision-makers; and accountability for one’s work. When students are challenged orally to explain their work, the ensuing discussion reveals the moral dilemmas that confront the decision maker. At the core of transformational teaching with cases is growth in integrity. As Aristotle said, “Character is destiny,” a truism readily apparent in the ruinous aftermath of the global financial crisis.

As with the sixth edition of this book, I must commend my colleagues, Kenneth Eades and Michael Schill, who brought this seventh edition to the public. They are accomplished scholars in Finance and masterful teachers—above all, they are devoted to the quality of the learning experience for students. Their efforts in preparing this volume will enrich the learning for countless students and help teachers world-wide to rise to the various challenges of the post-crisis world.

Robert F. Bruner Dean and Charles C. Abbott Professor of Business Administration Distinguished Professor of Business Administration Darden Graduate School of Business Administration University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia October 8, 2012

Foreword

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The inexplicable is all around us. So is the incomprehensible. So is the unintelligible. Interviewing Babe Ruth* in 1928, I put it to him “People come and ask what’s your system for hitting home runs—that so?” “Yes,” said the Babe, “and all I can tell ‘em is I pick a good one and sock it. I get back to the dugout and they ask me what it was I hit and I tell ‘em I don’t know except it looked good.”

—Carl Sandburg†

Managers are not confronted with problems that are independent of each other, but with dynamic situations that consist of complex systems of changing problems that interact with each other. I call such situations messes . . . Managers do not solve problems: they manage messes.

—Russell Ackoff‡

Orientation of the Book

Practitioners tell us that much in finance is inexplicable, incomprehensible, and unin- telligible. Like Babe Ruth, their explanations for their actions often amount to “I pick a good one and sock it.” Fortunately for a rising generation of practitioners, tools and concepts of Modern Finance provide a language and approach for excellent perform- ance. The aim of this book is to illustrate and exercise the application of these tools and concepts in a messy world.

Focus on Value The subtitle of this book is Managing for Corporate Value Creation. Economics teaches us that value creation should be an enduring focus of concern because value is the foundation of survival and prosperity of the enterprise. The focus on value also helps managers understand the impact of the firm on the world around it. These cases harness and exercise this economic view of the firm. It is the special province of finance to highlight value as a legitimate concern for managers. The cases in this book exercise valuation analysis over a wide range of assets, debt, equities, and options, and a wide range of perspectives, such as investor, creditor, and manager.

Linkage to Capital Markets An important premise of these cases is that managers should take cues from the cap- ital markets. The cases in this volume help the student learn to look at the capital markets in four ways. First, they illustrate important players in the capital markets such as individual exemplars like Warren Buffett and Bill Miller and institutions like

Preface

*George Herman “Babe” Ruth (1895–1948) was one of the most famous players in the history of American baseball, leading the league in home runs for 10 straight seasons, setting a record of 60 home runs in one season, and hitting 714 home runs in his career. Ruth was also known as the “Sultan of Swat.”

†Carl Sandburg, “Notes for Preface,” in Harvest Poems (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1960), p.11.

‡Russell Ackoff, “The Future of Operational Research is Past,” Journal of Operational Research Society, 30, 1 (Pergamon Press, Ltd., 1979): 93–104.

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investment banks, commercial banks, rating agencies, hedge funds, merger arbi- trageurs, private equity firms, lessors of industrial equipment, and so on. Second, they exercise the students’ abilities to interpret capital market conditions across the eco- nomic cycle. Third, they explore the design of financial securities, and illuminate the use of exotic instruments in support of corporate policy. Finally, they help students understand the implications of transparency of the firm to investors, and the impact of news about the firm in an efficient market.

Respect for the Administrative Point of View The real world is messy. Information is incomplete, arrives late, or is reported with error. The motivations of counterparties are ambiguous. Resources often fall short. These cases illustrate the immense practicality of finance theory in sorting out the issues facing managers, assessing alternatives, and illuminating the effects of any par- ticular choice. A number of the cases in this book present practical ethical dilemmas or moral hazards facing managers—indeed, this edition features a chapter, “Ethics in Finance” right at the beginning, where ethics belongs. Most of the cases (and teach- ing plans in the associated instructor’s manual) call for action plans rather than mere analyses or descriptions of a problem.

Contemporaneity All of the cases in this book are set in the year 2000 or after and 40 percent are set in 2006 or later. A substantial proportion (25 percent) of these cases and technical notes are new, or significantly updated. The mix of cases reflects the global business environment: 45 percent of the cases in this book are set outside the United States, or have strong cross-border elements. Finally the blend of cases continues to reflect the growing role of women in managerial ranks: 28 percent of the cases present women as key protagonists and decision-makers. Generally, these cases reflect the increasingly diverse world of business participants.

Plan of the Book

The cases may be taught in many different combinations. The sequence indicated by the table of contents corresponds to course designs used at Darden. Each cluster of cases in the Table of Contents suggests a concept module, with a particular orientation.

1. Setting Some Themes. These cases introduce basic concepts of value creation, assessment of performance against a capital market benchmark, and capital market efficiency that reappear throughout a case course. The numerical analysis required of the student is relatively light. The synthesis of case facts into an important framework or perspective is the main challenge. The case, “Warren E. Buffett, 2005,” sets the nearly universal theme of this volume: the need to think like an investor. “Bill Miller and Value Trust,” explores a basic question about performance measurement: what is the right benchmark against which to evaluate success? “Ben & Jerry’s Homemade, Inc.” invites a consideration of “value” and the ways to measure it. The case entitled, “The Battle for Value, 2004: FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc.” uses

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“economic profit” (or EVA®) to explore the origins of value creation and destruction, and its competitive implications for the future. A new case, “Genzyme and Relational Investors: Science and Business Collide?”, poses the dilemma of managing a public company when the objectives of the shareholders are not always easily aligned with the long-term objectives of the company.

2. Financial Analysis and Forecasting. In this section, students are introduced to the crucial skills of financial-statement analysis, break-even analysis, ratio analysis, and financial statement forecasting. The section starts with a note, “The Thoughtful Forecaster”, that provides a helpful introduction to financial state- ment analysis and student guidance on generating rational financial forecasts. The case, “Value Line Publishing: October 2002”, provides students an exposure to financial modeling with electronic spreadsheets. “Horniman Horticulture” uses a financial model to build intuition for the relevancy of corporate cash flow and the financial effects of firm growth. The case, “Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc.,” confronts issues regarding the quality of reported financial results. “Guna Fibres” asks the students to consider a variety of working capital decisions, including the impact of seasonal demand upon financing needs. Other cases address issues in the analysis of working-capital management, and credit analysis.

3. Estimating the Cost of Capital. This module begins with a discussion of “best practices” among leading firms. The cases exercise skills in estimating the cost of capital for firms and their business segments. The cases aim to exercise and solidify students’ mastery of the capital asset pricing model, the dividend-growth model, and the weighted average cost of capital formula. “Roche Holdings AG: Funding the Genentech Acquisition” is a new case that invites students to estimate the appropriate cost of debt in the largest debt issuance in history. The case provides an introduction to the concept of estimating required returns. “Nike, Inc.: Cost of Capital” presents an introductory exercise in the estimation of the weighted average cost of capital. “Teletech Corporation, 2005,” explores the implications of mean-variance analysis to business segments within a firm, and gives a useful foundation for discussing value-additivity. “The Boeing 7E7,” presents a dramatic exercise in the estimation of a discount rate for a major corporate project.

4. Capital Budgeting and Resource Allocation. The focus of these cases is the evaluation of investment opportunities and entire capital budgets. The analytical challenges range from simple time value of money problems (“The Investment Detective”) to setting the entire capital budget for a resource-constrained firm (“Target Corporation”). Key issues in this module include the estimation of Free Cash Flows, the comparison of various investment criteria (NPV, IRR, payback, and equivalent annuities), the treatment of issues in mutually exclusive invest- ments, and capital budgeting under rationing. This module features several new cases. The first is “The Procter and Gamble Company: Crest Whitestrips Ad- vanced Seal”, which asks the student to value a new product launch but then con- sider the financial implications of a variety of alternative launch scenarios. The second new case, “Jacobs Division”, presents students an opportunity to consider the implications of strategic planning processes. And finally, “UVa Hospital System: The Long-term Acute Care Hospital Project”, is an analysis of investment

xvi Preface

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decision within a not-for-profit environment. In addition to forecasting and valuing the project’s cash flows, students must assess whether NPV and IRR are appropriate metrics for an organization that does not have stockholders.

5. Management of the Firm’s Equity: Dividends and Repurchases. This module seeks to develop practical principles about dividend policy and share issues by drawing on concepts about dividend irrelevance, signaling, investor clienteles, bond- ing, and agency costs. The first case, “Gainesboro Machine Tools Corporation”, concerns a company that is changing its business strategy and considering a change in its dividend policy. The case serves as a comprehensive introduction to corporate financial policy and themes in managing the right side of the balance sheet. The sec- ond case is new to this edition. “AutoZone, Inc.” is a leading auto parts retailer that has been repurchasing shares over many years. The case serves as an excellent ex- ample of how share repurchases impact the balance sheet and presents the student with the challenge of assessing the impact upon the company’s stock price.

6. Management of the Corporate Capital Structure. The problem of setting capital structure targets is introduced in this module. Prominent issues are the use and creation of debt tax shields, the role of industry economics and technol- ogy, the influence of corporate competitive strategy, the tradeoffs between debt policy, dividend policy, and investment goals, and the avoidance of costs of distress. The case, “California Pizza Kitchen,” addresses the classic dilemma entailed in optimizing the use of debt tax shields and providing financial flexibility—this theme is extended in another case, “Deluxe Corporation” that asks how much flexibility a firm needs. “Horizon Lines, Inc.” is a new case about a company facing default on a debt covenant that will prompt the need for either Chapter 11 protection or a voluntary financial restructuring.

7. Analysis of Financing Tactics: Leases, Options, and Foreign Currency. While the preceding module is concerned with setting debt targets, this module addresses a range of tactics a firm might use to pursue those targets, hedge risk, and exploit market opportunities. Included are domestic and international debt offerings, leases, currency hedges, warrants, and convertibles. With these cases, students will exercise techniques in securities valuation, including the use of option-pricing theory. For example, “Baker Adhesives” explores the concept of exchange-rate risk and the management of that risk with a forward-contract hedge and a money-market hedge. “MoGen, Inc” presents the pricing challenges associ- ated with a convertible bond as well as a complex hedging strategy to change the conversion price of the convertible through the purchase of options and issuance of warrants. A new case, “J&L Railroad”, presents a commodity risk problem for which students are asked to propose a specific hedging strategy using financial contracts offered on the open market or from a commercial bank.

8. Valuing the Enterprise: Acquisitions and Buyouts. This module begins with an extensive introduction to firm valuation in the note “Methods of Valuation: Mergers and Acquisitions.” The focus of the note includes valuation using DCF and multiples. This edition features four new cases in this module. The first new case, “American Greetings”, is provides a straightforward firm valuation in the context of a repurchase decision and is designed to be an introduction to firm

Preface xvii

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xviii Preface

valuation. The second new case is “Rosetta Stone: Pricing the 2009 IPO”, provides an alternative IPO valuation case to the JetBlue case with additional focus on valuation with market multiples. “Sun Microsystems” is the third new addition to the module and presents traditional takeover valuation case with opportunities to evaluate merger synergies and cost of capital implications. Several of the cases demand an analysis that spans several stakeholders. For example, “Hershey Foods Corporation,” presents the high profile story of when the Hershey Trust Company put Hershey Foods up for sale. The case raises a number of challenging valuation and governance issues. “The Timken Company” deals with an acquisition that requires the student to conduct a challenging valua- tion analysis of Torrington as well as develop a financing strategy for the deal. The module also features a merger negotiation exercise (“Flinder Valves and Controls Inc.”) that provides an engaging venue for investigating the distribution of joint value in a merger negotiation. Thus, the comprehensive nature of cases in this module makes them excellent vehicles for end-of-course classes, student term papers, and/or presentations by teams of students.

This edition offers a number of cases that give insights about investing or financing decisions in emerging markets. These include “Guna Fibres Ltd.,” “Star River Elec- tronics Ltd.,” and “Baker Adhesives.”

Summary of Changes for this Edition

The seventh edition represents a substantial change from the sixth edition. This edition offers 13 new or significantly updated cases in this edition, or 25 percent

of the total. In the interest of presenting a fresh and contemporary collection, older cases have been updated and/or replaced with new case situations such that all the cases are set in 2000 or later and 40 percent are set in 2006 or later. Several of the favorite “classic” cases from the first six editions are available online from Irwin/McGraw-Hill, from where instructors who adopt this edition may copy them for classroom use. All cases and teach- ing notes have been edited to sharpen the opportunities for student analysis.

The book continues with a strong international aspect (24 of the cases, 45 percent, are set outside the United States or feature significant cross-border issues). Also, the collection continues to feature female decision-makers and protagonists prominently (15, or 28 percent, of the cases).

Supplements

The case studies in this volume are supported by various resources that help make student engagement a success:

• Spreadsheet files support student and instructor preparation of the cases. They are located on the book’s website at www.mhhe.com/bruner7e

• A guide to the novice on case preparation, “Note to the Student: How to Study and Discuss Cases” in this volume.

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Preface xix

• The instructor’s resource manual provides counterparty roles for two negotiation exercises and also presents detailed discussions of case outcomes, one of which is designed to be used as second class period for the case. These supplemental mate- rials can significantly extend student learning and expand the opportunities for classroom discussion.

• An instructor’s resource manual of about 800 pages in length containing teaching notes for each case. Each teaching note includes suggested assignment questions, a hypothetical teaching plan, and a prototypical finished case analysis.

• Website addresses in many of the teaching notes. These provide a convenient avenue for updates on the performance of undisguised companies appearing in the book.

• Notes in the instructor’s manual on how to design a case method course, on using computers with cases, and on preparing to teach a case.

• A companion book by Robert Bruner titled, Socrates’ Muse: Reflections on Excel- lence in Case Discussion Leadership (Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2002), is available to instructors who adopt the book for classroom use. This book offers useful tips on case method teaching.

• Several “classic” cases and their associated teaching notes were among the most popular and durable cases in previous editions of Case Studies in Finance. Instructors adopting this volume for classroom use may request permission to reproduce them for their courses.

Acknowledgments

This book would not be possible without the contributions of many other people. Col- leagues at Darden who have taught, co-authored, contributed to, or commented on these cases are Brandt Allen, Yiorgos Allayannis, Sam Bodily, Karl-Adam Bonnier, Susan Chaplinsky, John Colley, Bob Conroy, Mark Eaker, Richard Evans, Bob Fair, Paul Farris, Jim Freeland, Sherwood Frey, Bob Harris, Jared Harris, Mark Haskins, Michael Ho, Marc Lipson, Elena Loutskina, Pedro Matos, Matt McBrady, Charles Meiburg, Jud Reis, William Sihler and Robert Spekman. We are grateful for their collegiality and for the support for our casewriting efforts from the Darden School Foundation, the L. White Matthews Fund for Finance Casewriting, the Batten Institute, the Citicorp Global Schol- ars Program, Columbia Business School, INSEAD, and the University of Melbourne.

Colleagues at other schools provided worthy insights and encouragement toward the development of the seven editions of Case Studies in Finance. We are grateful to the following persons (listed with the schools with which they were associated at the time of our correspondence or work with them):

Michael Adler, Columbia

Raj Aggarwal, John Carroll

Turki Alshimmiri, Kuwait Univ.

Ed Altman, NYU

James Ang, Florida State

Paul Asquith, M.I.T.

Bob Barnett, North Carolina State

Geert Bekaert, Stanford

Michael Berry, James Madison

Randy Billingsley, VPI&SU

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xx Preface

Gary Blemaster, Georgetown

Rick Boebel, Univ. Otago, New Zealand

Oyvind Bohren, BI, Norway

John Boquist, Indiana

Michael Brennan, UCLA

Duke Bristow, UCLA

Ed Burmeister, Duke

Kirt Butler, Michigan State

Don Chance, VPI&SU

Andrew Chen, Southern Methodist

Barbara J. Childs, Univ. of Texas at Austin

C. Roland Christensen, Harvard

Thomas E. Copeland, McKinsey

Jean Dermine, INSEAD

Michael Dooley, UVA Law

Barry Doyle, University of San Francisco

Bernard Dumas, INSEAD

Craig Dunbar, Western Ontario

Peter Eisemann, Georgia State

Javier Estrada, IESE

Ben Esty, Harvard

Thomas H. Eyssell, Missouri

Pablo Fernandez, IESE

Kenneth Ferris, Thunderbird

John Finnerty, Fordham

Joseph Finnerty, Illinois

Steve Foerster, Western Ontario

Günther Franke, Konstanz

Bill Fulmer, George Mason

Louis Gagnon, Queens

Dan Galai, Jerusalem

Jim Gentry, Illinois

Stuart Gilson, Harvard

Robert Glauber, Harvard

Mustafa Gultekin, North Carolina

Benton Gup, Alabama

Jim Haltiner, William & Mary

Rob Hansen, VPI&SU

Philippe Haspeslagh, INSEAD

Gabriel Hawawini, INSEAD

Pekka Hietala, INSEAD

Rocky Higgins, Washington

Pierre Hillion, INSEAD

Laurie Simon Hodrick, Columbia

John Hund, Texas

Daniel Indro, Kent State

Thomas Jackson, UVA Law

Pradeep Jalan, Regina

Michael Jensen, Harvard

Sreeni Kamma, Indiana

Steven Kaplan, Chicago

Andrew Karolyi, Western Ontario

James Kehr, Miami Univ. Ohio

Kathryn Kelm, Emporia State

Carl Kester, Harvard

Naveen Khanna, Michigan State

Herwig Langohr, INSEAD

Dan Laughhunn, Duke

Ken Lehn, Pittsburgh

Saul Levmore, UVA Law

Wilbur Lewellen, Purdue

Scott Linn, Oklahoma

Dennis Logue, Dartmouth

Paul Mahoney, UVA Law

Paul Malatesta, Washington

Wesley Marple, Northeastern

Felicia Marston, UVA (McIntire)

John Martin, Texas

Ronald Masulis, Vanderbilt

John McConnell, Purdue

Richard McEnally, North Carolina

Catherine McDonough, Babson

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Wayne Mikkelson, Oregon

Michael Moffett, Thunderbird

Nancy Mohan, Dayton

Ed Moses, Rollins

Charles Moyer, Wake Forest

David W. Mullins, Jr., Harvard

James T. Murphy, Tulane

Chris Muscarella, Penn State

Robert Nachtmann, Pittsburgh

Tom C. Nelson, University of Colorado

Ben Nunnally, UNC-Charlotte

Robert Parrino, Texas (Austin)

Luis Pereiro, Universidad Torcuato di Tella

Pamela Peterson, Florida State

Larry Pettit, Virginia (McIntire)

Tom Piper, Harvard

Gordon Philips, Maryland

John Pringle, North Carolina

Ahmad Rahnema, IESE

Al Rappaport, Northwestern

Allen Rappaport, Northern Iowa

Raghu Rau, Purdue

David Ravenscraft, North Carolina

Henry B. Reiling, Harvard

Lee Remmers, INSEAD

Jay Ritter, Michigan

Richard Ruback, Harvard

Jim Schallheim, Utah

Art Selander, Southern Methodist

Israel Shaked, Boston

Dennis Sheehan, Penn State

J.B. Silvers, Case Western

Betty Simkins, Oklahoma State

Luke Sparvero, Texas

Preface xxi

Richard Stapleton, Lancaster

Laura Starks, Texas

Jerry Stevens, Richmond

John Strong, William & Mary

Marti Subrahmanyam, NYU

Anant Sundaram, Thunderbird

Rick Swasey, Northeastern

Bob Taggart, Boston College

Udin Tanuddin, Univ. Surabaya, Indonesia

Anjan Thakor, Indiana

Thomas Thibodeau, Southern Methodist

Clifford Thies, Shenandoah Univ.

James G. Tompkins, Kenesaw State

Walter Torous, UCLA

Max Torres, IESE

Nick Travlos, Boston College

Lenos Trigeorgis, Cyprus

George Tsetsekos, Drexel

Peter Tufano, Harvard

James Van Horne, Stanford

Nick Varaiya, San Diego State

Theo Vermaelen, INSEAD

Michael Vetsuypens, Southern Methodist

Claude Viallet, INSEAD

Ingo Walter, NYU

Sam Weaver, Lehigh

Complete BCG Matrix Competetive Analysis For Medtronics

FORUM 1 – UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1

CASE STUDY 2 – TESLA 10

Student Name

Liberty University

BCG Matrix (Appendix )

The two strategic business units (SBUs) of Tesla evaluated via the BCG Matrix were the automotive operations and the energy generation storage organizational segments. The automotive services are the cash cow of Tesla because it is generating the most profit and revenue between the two SBUs, and consumes most the share earning within the company. The energy generation and storage segment of Tesla are the problem child because it makes up a small share of earnings and will require more resources and strategic initiatives to help grow this SBU. Therefore, the automotive operations are the more profitable business unit when compared to it lesser performing SBU energy generation and storage. Tesla’s can utilize some of the cash generated from the automotive operations and invest it in energy production and storage to help maximize growth.

Product Life Cycle

Tesla life cycle is between the initial and growth stage since the development of electric cars is becoming more mainstream. Tesla currently manufactures three models which are the X, S and 3 type that vary in size from compact to medium sized vehicles. In the future, as growth for the company continues larger cars like SUV and minivans will be developed. Also, as the demand for electric vehicles increases to help mitigate air pollution and waste, more automobile companies will pursue the technology advancements of producing electrically operated vehicles. Therefore, to help prevent adverse effects from the mature development of electric motor vehicle in the automobile industry, Tesla will have to employ techniques like mass production of a various model to fit the needs of all consumers and find a way to expand their customer base by offering a reasonably priced vehicle. The overall objective is to adapt to the market and keep profits high as possible.

Competitive Forces Analysis

The automotive industry is a very competitive market which requires multiple strategic initiatives to help entice consumers and maximize profits. The automobile industry in the United States is saturated with both dominant domestic and import companies such as Ford, Chevy, Toyota, Honda, BMW and Volkswagen to name a few. Tesla is the smaller company that specializes in making high-end electric motor vehicles by providing an alternative to standard gasoline fuel. With the rise of cars being environmentally healthy and minimizing pollution, Tesla will be a competitive force to be reckoned with in a competitive automobile industry consumed by gasoline operated vehicles.

Porter’s Five Forces

· The Threat of New Entrants: The threat of new entrants in the auto industry is always high. Automobile companies are always going to challenge each other for sustaining success by holding a majority of the market, high profits, and maintaining a huge consumers base by offering what people desire (McMullen, 2016). In the case of Tesla, the company offers a high quality, sporty, cutting edge, electric propelled a motor vehicle, and depending on the demand by consumers this niche automaker could become a force in a large automobile industry that has both Honda and Toyota to compete against for electrical car dominance.

· Bargaining Power of Buyers: Barging power for consumers is moderate for Tesla. Tesla does participate in a niche market, by offering an electric vehicle that is high priced aimed at targeting high-end users. Therefore, Tesla is providing a specific high-quality vehicle, to a particular demographic, which directly impacts bargaining power for buyers. Also, federal and local governments are providing incentives for cleaner technologies (DeShazo, Sheldon, & Larson, 2017), which directly impacts the demand for electric cars keeping the power of bargaining power low.

· Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Bargaining power of suppliers is high because Tesla is very dependent on suppliers delivering raw materials and components that could impact production timelines directly affecting cost. Tesla vehicles are made up of very savvy technology, which is driven by research and development of significant technological parts, which too can impact bargaining power of suppliers.

· The Threat of Substitutes: The threat of substitute that could affect Tesla’s low. Although other automobile companies such as Honda and Toyota offer electric hybrid vehicles, a majority of Tesla car are customized and made to order. Therefore, Tesla affords its consumers the opportunity to get the vehicle they went at the point of purchase vice having to search for the electric car they want.

· Competitive Rivalry: The automotive industry is a very competitive market which requires multiple strategic initiatives to help entice consumers and maximize profits. The automobile industry in the United States is saturated with both dominant domestic and import companies such as Ford, Chevy, Toyota, Honda, BMW and Volkswagen to name a few. Tesla is a smaller company that specializes in making high-end electric motor vehicles by providing an alternative power source rather than the standard gasoline fuel. With the rise of cars being environmentally healthy and minimizing pollution, Tesla is a competitive force to be reckoned with in a competitive automobile industry consumed by gasoline operated vehicles, and the completion being Honda and Toyota which offer hybrid vehicle ran off both electricity and gas.

Competitive Profile Analysis (Appendix )

The competitive profile matrix was based on evaluating 12-critical success factors of Tesla, the Ford Motor Company, and Toyota. The most critical factors for success for all three automobile companies are advertisement, customer service, brand value, economic profit, customer loyalty, and quality. Tesla is a young car company in the United States, but it lagged in competitive profiling with a total score of 23.65. Tesla’s highest rating was based on research and development since it is a high-end luxury electric motor vehicle with savvy technology and battery powered and operated. Then customer loyalty is high as well since most of the consumers come from a particular economic demographic that shows continued support for the Tesla brand. Tesla rating for price competitiveness is low since the vehicle is marketed with a high price tag not competing against the standard models of both Ford and Toyota. Also, their R&D is greater because it is battery-operated vehicles with slot technological interfaces, whereas Ford and Toyota’s sell more car globally since their production are more streamlined or economical to scale.

Competitors Ratios Analysis (Appendix )

When evaluating the competitors’ ratio analysis Ford has the highest debt to equity ratio of all competitors, but Ford and Toyota can meet short-term financial liabilities as indicated on their quick ratio, whereas Tesla is below one indicating they will have a harder time meeting the short-term financial obligations. When evaluating the return on equity (ROE) which is the competitor’s profit to shareholder equity, Tesla was not profitable for how much money shareholder invested with – a 9.1 ROE in 2016. Both Ford and Toyota earned modest profits per shareholder equity with both ratios being greater than 1 in 2016. The net gain for all competitors was very similar because all competitors were below the ratio, which an indication that a trend is happening within the automobile industry for all three competitors at

Alternative Strategies

There are multiple strategies that Tesla can utilize to help stimulate and sustain growth. A strategic concept can either hinge on previous initiatives or look for alternate innovative ways to increase growth. Below are the follow strategic alternatives that can be used.

1. Stability Strategy

2. Expansion Strategy

Stability Strategy

Stability strategy is employed for companies that are not looking to expand or introduce new items into a separate market. The is strategic alternative could be perfect for Tesla because sustainable and continued growth is important for a new company.

· This will allow for complete focus on introducing high-quality products into current market

· Narrow focus of resources in R&D to enhance current products.

· Will help increase the performance of goods over time incrementally.

· Enhances current vehicle production.

· Allows the company to capitalize on current productive processes.

Stability strategy will help Tesla focus on improving technology and quality of existing vehicles in the market not necessarily hindering growth by not expanding. Some disadvantages could be.

· Slower introductory of newer vehicles into the market

· Innovation for expansion is hindered, one avenue for growth

· Customers will be limited to just this one product produced by a company.

Expansion Strategy

The expansion strategy can be employed by Tesla to help determine other ways to break into other markets and raise their strategic competitive advantage. Tesla can utilize expansion to help increase growth and mitigate a rapid decline by not expanding and adapting to the market demand and growing market share and using resources. Some advantages of expansion:

· R& D can be enhanced within the organization

· Opportunity to improve innovative ideas and diversify products

· Economic of scale

Disadvantages of expansion strategy

· Require massive capital investment

· Different customer base

· Outsourcing

Regardless if you’re a pursuing stability or expansion plans, they are great alternatives depending on the objective of the company and current state of the market.

Reference

DeShazo, J. R., Sheldon, T. L., & Carson, R. T. (2017). Designing policy incentives for cleaner technologies: Lessons from California’s plug-in electric vehicle rebate program. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management84, 18-43.

McMullen, S. (2016). Giving Consumers What They Want?. In Animals and the Economy (pp. 45-61). Palgrave Macmillan UK.

Competitive Profile Matrix (Appendix )

  Tesla Ford Toyota
Critical Success Factors Weight

Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score
Advertising 1.00 1 1.00 4 4.00 3 3.00
Market Penetration 0.75 2 1.50 4 3.00 4 3.00
Customer Service 1.00 3 3.00 3 3.00 4 4.00
Distribution Channels 0.50 2 1.00 4 2.00 4 2.00
R&D Spending 0.60 4 2.40 2 1.20 3 1.80
Brand Value 1.00 3 3.00 4 4.00 4 4.00
Financial Profit 1.00 1 1.00 3 3.00 4 4.00
Customer Loyalty 1.00 4 4.00 3 3.00 4 4.00
Global Expansion 0.60 2 1.20 3 1.80 3 1.80
Product Quality 1.00 3 3.00 2 2.00 4 4.00
Online Presence 0.75 3 2.25 1 0.75 1 0.75
Price Competitiveness 0.30 1 0.30 3 0.90 3 0.90
Totals 9.50   23.65   28.65   33.25

Competitors Ratios (Appendix )

FY 2016 Competitors Analysis
Ratios Ford Tesla Toyota
Debt to Equity Ratio 4.6 1.5 1.1
Quick Ratio 1.2 0.72 1.1
Return on Equity 2.5 -9.1 1.3
Net Profit Margin 0.8 0.9 0.4

BCG Matrix Appendix ( )

High+20

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Web Development Test

Web Development Test   This page has a initial time limit of 0:30:00 Would you like to disable all future page timer notifications?       Test      True or False: HTML and CSS are front end technology. * This question is required.  ⚪True  ⚪False       What is the difference between HTML and CSS? * This question is required.  ⚪CSS is a markup language unlike HTML  ⚪HTML is a backend technology and CSS is a front end technology  ⚪HTML focuses on a web page’s structure and CSS focuses on its presentation  ⚪As of HTML5 there is no difference       In a proper webpage, which tag holds all of a webpages visible HTML? * This question is required.  ⚪html  ⚪head  ⚪body  ⚪link  ⚪script  ⚪doctype       Alphabet for your reference:  A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z   If the code for CAT is ECV  what is the code for DOG? * This question is required.  ⚪FQI  ⚪BIT  ⚪FDW  ⚪GRJ       The sum of two consecutive numbers is 37.  What are they? * This question is required.  ⚪18, 19  ⚪7, 30  ⚪20, 17  ⚪36, 1               It’s 3 PM. How many degrees are in the angle between the hour and minute hand? * This question is required.  ⚪90  ⚪60  ⚪15  ⚪25  ⚪180       What does the following code alert?   var person = {    name: “Mike”,    age: 25,    favoriteFood: “pizza”  };   alert(“My best friend’s name is” + person.name + “,he’s ” + person.age + ” years old and his favorite food is ” + person.favoriteFood);    * This question is required.  ⚪My best friend’s name isMike,he’s 25 years old and his favorite food is pizza  ⚪My best friend’s name is Mike, he’s 25 years old and his favorite food is pizza.  ⚪My best friend’s name isMike ,he’s 25 years old and his favorite food is pizza.  ⚪My friend’s best name isMike,he’s 25 years old and his favorite food is pizza.       What language(s) MUST be used to display a bare-minimum web page?    ⚪HTML, SQL, Node.js  ⚪HTML  ⚪JavaScript & PHP  ⚪SQL       What is the best image format for our website if we needed our image to have a transparent background?    ⚪JPEG  ⚪JPG  ⚪GIF  ⚪PNG  ⚪PSD  ⚪TIFF  ⚪None of these       Which one of these is the most different?    ⚪JavaScript  ⚪PHP  ⚪Ruby  ⚪Python  ⚪MySQL       Which of these statements is true?    ⚪Agile is a programming language  ⚪SQL is a database language  ⚪HTML stands for “Hypertext Markup Link”  ⚪Java is short for JavaScript               It’s 2 PM. How many degrees are in the angle between the hour and minute hand?    ⚪90  ⚪60  ⚪15  ⚪25  ⚪180             The following HTML and CSS is COMPLETELY CORRECT. This code makes up a web page. When the following code renders onto the screen, which paragraph appears bolded?    ⚪The Wonder Years is an American television comedy-drama created by Neal Marlens and Carol Black.  ⚪It ran on ABC from 1988 until 1993.  ⚪The pilot aired on January 31, 1988, following ABC’s coverage of Super Bowl XXII.  ⚪All of the above       Which operation could we perform in order to find the number of milliseconds in a year?    ⚪60 * 60 * 24 * 7 * 365  ⚪1000 * 60 * 60 * 24 * 365  ⚪24 * 60 * 100 * 7 * 52  ⚪1000 * 60 * 24 * 7 * 52  ⚪None of these       You are facing North. Turn 90 degrees left. Turn 180 degrees right. Reverse direction. Turn 45 degrees left. Reverse direction. In which direction are you now facing?     ⚪North  ⚪West  ⚪South West  ⚪South East  ⚪North West  ⚪North East       Albert thought of a number, added 5, multiplied the result by 2, took away 6 and then divided by 2 to give an answer of 8.    ⚪5  ⚪6  ⚪3  ⚪4       If you’re driving one and a half miles per minute, slow down by 15 miles per hour, and then reduce your speed by one third, how fast are you going now?    ⚪90 miles per hour  ⚪60 miles per hour  ⚪50 miles per hour  ⚪75 miles per hour  ⚪45 miles per hour       What is the value of ?????  ???? + ???? = 10;  ???? + ???? = 6;  ???? + ???? = 5;    ⚪6  ⚪9  ⚪7  ⚪8  ⚪1       Which CSS attribute would change an element’s font color to blue?    ⚪font-color: blue;  ⚪background: blue;  ⚪color: blue;  ⚪background-color: blue;  ⚪font: blue;       What is the largest number that can be produced by multiplying any three individual numbers from the following list.   [-2, 1, 3, -8, 5, 9, -9, 4, 7, -7, 8]    ⚪648  ⚪504  ⚪732  ⚪888

web development test

profileshiley4

International Business Decision Making

Assignment 1: Discussion Questions—International Business Decision Making

The various factors impacting international business may be brought together into a process for evaluating international business opportunities. Choosing the right mode of entry is the next step.

Research evaluation of business opportunities and modes of entry using your textbook,  University online library resources, and the Internet. Respond to the following:

  • Explain how a business can assess international business opportunities giving examples. Do you think the size of the company matters in assessing an international business opportunity? Give reasons for your answer.
  • In your opinion, what would be the single most effective way for a potential international business to gain entry into an international market? What are the apparent risks of the mode of entry you recommend? For at least one other mode of entry, explain why it would be less effective compared to the one you chose.

Write your response in 400 words or less. Apply current APA standards for writing style to your work. All written assignments and responses should follow APA rules for attributing sources.

By Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Assignment 2: Presentation—Starting an International Business

Business decisions are not made on a hunch or some vague idea of a good place to do business. Professionals assess business opportunities and modes of entry to choose the best alternative.

Research the topic using your textbook,  University online library resources, and the Internet. Based on your research, develop a presentation. Your role is of an educational specialist in international business and your audience is a group of middle managers.

Discuss the following in your presentation:

  • Steps to analyzing international business opportunities with specifics of what is involved in each step
  • Alternative methods for gaining entry into an international business opportunity or market

Submit your work in a 10-slide PowerPoint presentation. Use the speaker notes area to write the information supporting the slides. Apply current APA standards for writing style to your work. All written assignments and responses should follow APA rules for attributing sources.

By Saturday, Feb 16,2013

Read the following chapters from : Wild, John J., Kenneth L. Wild & Jerry C.Y. Han. International Business: The Challenges of Globalization, 5th Edition. Pearson Learning Solutions

 

12 Analyzing International Opportunities

Learning Objectives

After studying this chapter, you should be able to

1 Explain each of the four steps in the market- and site-screening process.

2 Describe the three primary difficulties of conducting international market research.

3 Identify the main sources of secondary international data and explain their usefulness.

4 Describe the main methods used to conduct primary international research.

 A LOOK BACK

Chapter 11 showed us how companies plan and organize themselves for international operations. We explored the different types of strategies and organizational structures that international companies use to accomplish their strategic goals.

 A LOOK AT THIS CHAPTER

This chapter begins with an explanation of how managers screen potential new markets and new sites for operations. We then describe the main difficulties of conducting international market research. We also identify the information required in the screening process and where managers can go to obtain such information.

 A LOOK AHEAD

Chapter 13 describes the selection and management issues surrounding the different entry modes available to companies going international. We examine the importance of an export strategy for exporters and the pros and cons of each entry mode.

Global Buzz Over Starbucks

Osaka, Japan — Starbucks (www.starbucks.com) began its global journey in 1996 with its first coffeehouse in Tokyo, Japan. Pictured below is a Starbucks located in the Japanese city of Osaka. Today Starbucks has around 1,500 coffeehouses in 43 markets outside North America. Although it has closed some underperforming stores, Starbucks still creates a buzz worldwide.

Starbucks brought European-style coffee to the United States and then took its American-style coffeehouses to Europe. The coffee giant was right that paper-cupped lattes and nonsmoking venues could take on Europe’s traditional cafés. Although in Britain since the late 1990s, Starbucks waited patiently before steaming into Zurich, Switzerland, in 2001 and into Paris, France, in 2004. Starbucks carefully researched Europe’s markets before opening its first European café in Zurich, and then branching out to other nations. With its multicultural and multilingual population, the Swiss market gave Starbucks a “tremendous opportunity to learn how to operate elsewhere in Europe,” revealed Mark McKeon, president of Starbucks Europe, Middle East, and Africa.

Source: © Andy Rain/CORBIS. All Rights Reserved.

At the same time, Starbucks introduced a coffee culture to tea lovers in China. Starbucks is encouraged by the fact that one-third of all Chinese households keep a jar of instant coffee on hand. Starbucks is trying to make coffee the drink of choice for the average 18- to 45-year-old Chinese consumer. “Per capita consumption of coffee in China is very small,” admitted Howard Behar, president of Starbucks Coffee International. “But what you have is a tremendous amount of people, so the market will grow.”

Starbucks founder and CEO, Howard Schultz, says that an integral component of Starbucks’ strategy is its image as a fair-trading multinational, which it acquired by promoting its “fair trade” coffee. As you read this chapter, consider how companies research, analyze, and select the international markets they will enter.1

Companies traditionally become involved in international business by choosing to enter familiar, nearby countries first. Managers feel comfortable entering nearby markets because they likely have already interacted with the people of those cultures and have at least some understanding of them. Companies in Canada, Mexico, and the United States often gain their initial international experiences in one another’s markets. Likewise, businesses in Asia often seek out opportunities in one another’s markets before pursuing investment opportunities outside the region.

Yet companies today find themselves bridging the gaps presented by space and culture far more often than in the past. For one thing, technological advances in communication and transportation continue to open markets around the globe. Some companies can realistically consider nearly every location on earth as either a potential market or as a site for business operations. The expansion of regional markets (such as the European Union) also causes companies to analyze opportunities farther from home. Businesses locate production facilities within regional markets because producing in one of a region’s countries provides duty-free access to every consumer in the trade bloc.

The rapidly changing global marketplace forces companies to view business strategies from a global perspective. Businesses today formulate production, marketing, and other strategies as components of integrated plans. For example, to provide a continuous flow of timely information into the production process, more and more firms locate research and development (R&D) facilities near their production sites abroad. Managers also find themselves screening and analyzing locations as potential markets and as potential sites for operations simultaneously. When Mercedes (www.mercedes.com) introduced the M-class sport utility vehicle to the U.S. market, executives also decided to build the vehicle there. The company did not merely estimate the size of the potential market for the vehicle, but simultaneously selected a suitable production site.

This chapter presents a systematic screening process for both markets and sites. After describing important cultural, political, legal, and economic forces affecting the screening process, we explain the difficulties of conducting international research. We then explore the central sources of existing market data and the prime methods for conducting international research firsthand.

Screening Potential Markets and Sites

Two important issues concern managers during the market- and site-screening process. First, they want to keep search costs as low as possible. Second, they want to examine every potential market and every possible location. To accomplish these two goals, managers can segment the screening of markets and sites into the following four-step process (see Figure 12.1):

1. Identify basic appeal

2. Assess the national business environment

3. Measure market or site potential

4. Select the market or site

This screening process involves spending more time, money, and effort on the markets and sites that remain in the later stages of screening. Expensive feasibility studies (conducted later in the process) are performed on a few markets and sites that hold the greatest promise. This approach creates a screening process that is cost effective yet does not overlook potential locations. Let’s now discuss each of the four steps above in detail.

Step 1: Identify Basic Appeal

We have already seen that companies go international either to increase sales (and thus profits) or to access resources. The first step in identifying potential markets is to assess the basic demand for a product. Similarly, the first step in selecting a site for a facility to undertake production, R&D, or some other activity is to explore the availability of the resources required.

FIGURE 12.1 Screening Process for Potential Markets and Sites

Determining Basic Demand

The first step in searching for potential markets means finding out whether there is a basic demand for a company’s product. Important in determining this basic appeal is a country’s climate. For example, no company would try to market snowboards in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, or Central America because they receive no snowfall. The same product, on the other hand, is well suited for markets in the Canadian Rockies, northern Japan, and the Swiss Alps. Although this stage seems simple, it cannot be taken too lightly. A classic example is when, during its initial forays into international business, Wal-Mart (www.walmart.com) found ice-fishing huts in its Puerto Rico inventory and no snowshoes at its stores in Ontario, Canada.

Certain countries also ban specific goods. Islamic countries, for instance, forbid the importation of alcoholic products, and the penalties for smuggling are stiff. Although alcohol is available on the planes of international airlines such as British Airways (www.ba.com) and KLM (www.klm.com), it cannot leave the airplane and consumption cannot take place until the plane has left the airspace of the country operating under Islamic law.

Determining Availability of Resources

Companies that require particular resources to carry out local business activities must be sure they are available. Raw materials needed for manufacturing must either be found in the national market or imported. Yet imports may encounter tariffs, quotas, or other government barriers. Managers must consider the additional costs of importing to ensure that total product cost does not rise to unacceptable levels.

The availability of labor is essential to production in any country. Many companies choose to relocate to countries where workers’ wages are lower than they are in the home country. This practice is most common among makers of labor-intensive products—those for which labor accounts for a large portion of total cost. Companies considering local production must determine whether there is enough labor available locally for production operations.

Companies that hope to secure financing in a market abroad must determine the availability and cost of local capital. If local interest rates are too high, a company might be forced to obtain financing in its home country or in other markets in which it is active. On the other hand, access to low-cost financing may provide a powerful inducement to a company that is seeking to expand internationally. British entrepreneur Richard Branson opened several of his Virgin (www.virgin.com) Megastores in Japan despite its reputation as a tough market to crack. One reason for Branson’s initial attraction to Japan was a local cost of capital that was roughly one-third its cost in Britain.

Markets and sites that fail to meet a company’s requirements for basic demand or resource availability in step 1 are removed from further consideration.

Step 2: Assess the National Business Environment

If the business environments of all countries were the same, deciding where to market or produce products would be rather straightforward. Managers could rely on data that report the performance of the local economy and analyze expected profits from proposed investments. But as we saw in earlier chapters, countries differ significantly in their cultures, politics, laws, and economies. International managers must work to understand these differences and to incorporate their understanding into market- and site-selection decisions. Let’s examine how domestic forces in the business environment actually affect the location-selection process.

Cultural Forces

Although countries display cultural similarities, they differ in language, attitudes toward business, religious beliefs, traditions, customs, and countless other ways. Some products are sold in global markets with little or no modification. These products include industrial machinery such as packaging equipment, consumer products such as toothpaste and soft drinks, and many other types of goods and services. Yet many other products must undergo extensive adaptation to suit local preferences, such as books, magazines, ready-to-eat meals, and other products.

Cultural elements can influence what kinds of products are sold and how they are sold. A company must assess how the local culture in a candidate market might affect the salability of its product. Consider Coca-Cola’s (www.cocacola.com) experience in China. Many Chinese take a traditional medicine to fight off flu and cold symptoms. As it turns out, the taste of this traditional medicine—which most people do not find appealing—is similar to that of Coke. Because of Coca-Cola’s global marketing policy of one taste worldwide, the company had to overcome the aversion to the taste of Coke among Chinese consumers. It did so by creating a marketing campaign that associated drinking a Coke with experiencing a piece of American culture. What initially looked like an unattractive market for Coke became very successful through a carefully tailored marketing campaign.

Cultural elements in the business environment can also affect site-selection decisions. When substantial product modifications are needed for cultural reasons, a company might choose to establish production facilities in the target market itself. Yet serving customers’ special needs in a target market must be offset against any potential loss of economies of scale due to producing in several locations rather than just one. Today companies can minimize such losses through the use of flexible manufacturing methods. Although cellular phone manufacturer Nokia (www.nokia.com) produces in locations worldwide, it ensures that each one of its facilities can start producing any one of its mobile phones for its different markets within 24 hours.

A qualified workforce is important to a company no matter what activity it is to undertake at a particular site. Also, a strong work ethic among the local workforce is essential to having productive operations. Managers must assess whether an appropriate work ethic exists in each potential country for the purposes of production, service, or any other business activity. An adequate level of educational attainment among the local workforce for the planned business activity is also very important. Although product-assembly operations may not require an advanced education, R&D, high-tech production, and certain services normally will require extensive higher education. If the people at a potential site do not display an appropriate work ethic or educational attainment, the site will be ruled out for further consideration.

Political and Legal Forces

Political and legal forces also influence the market and site-location decision. Important factors include government regulation, government bureaucracy, and political stability. Let’s take a brief look at each of these factors.

GOVERNMENT REGULATION

As we saw in earlier chapters, a nation’s culture, history, and current events cause differences in attitudes toward trade and investment. Some governments take a strong nationalistic stance, whereas others are quite receptive to international trade and investment. A government’s attitude toward trade and investment is reflected in the quantity and types of restrictions it places on imports, exports, and investment in its country.

Government regulations can quickly eliminate a market or site from further consideration. First of all, they can create investment barriers to ensure domestic control of a company or industry. One way in which a government can accomplish this is by imposing investment rules on matters such as business ownership—for example, forcing foreign companies into joint ventures. Governments can extend investment rules to bar international companies entirely from competing in certain sectors of the domestic economy. The practice is usually defended as a matter of national security. Economic sectors commonly declared off-limits include television and radio broadcasting, automobile manufacturing, aircraft manufacturing, energy exploration, military-equipment manufacturing, and iron and steel production. Such industries are protected either because they are culturally important, are engines for economic growth, or are essential to any potential war effort. Host governments often fear that losing control in these economic sectors means placing their fate in the hands of international companies.

Second, governments can restrict international companies from freely removing profits earned in the nation. This policy can force a company to hold cash in the host country or to reinvest it in new projects there. Such policies are normally rooted in the inability of the host-country government to earn the foreign exchange needed to pay for badly needed imports. For instance, Chinese subsidiaries of multinational companies must convert the local currency (renminbi) to their home currency when remitting profits back to the parent company. Multinationals can satisfy this stipulation only as long as the Chinese government agrees to provide it with the needed home-country currency.

Third, governments can impose very strict environmental regulations. In most industrial countries, factories that produce industrial chemicals as their main output or as byproducts must adhere to strict pollution standards. Regulations typically demand the installation of expensive pollution-control devices and close monitoring of nearby air, water, and soil quality. While protecting the environment, such regulations also increase short-term production costs. Many developing and emerging markets have far less strict environmental regulations. Regrettably, some companies are alleged to have moved production of toxic materials to emerging markets to take advantage of lax environmental regulations and, in turn, lower production costs. Although such behavior is roundly criticized as highly unethical, it will occur less often as nations continue cooperating to formulate common environmental protection policies.

Finally, governments can also require that companies divulge certain information. Coca-Cola actually left India when the government demanded that it disclose its secret Coke formula as a requirement for doing business there. Coca-Cola returned only after the Indian government dropped its demand.

GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRACY

A lean and smoothly operating government bureaucracy can make a market or site more attractive. Yet a bloated and cumbersome system of obtaining approvals and licenses from government agencies can make it less appealing. In many developing countries, the relatively simple matter of obtaining a license to establish a retail outlet often means acquiring numerous documents from several agencies. The bureaucrats in charge of these agencies generally are little concerned with providing businesses with high-quality service. Managers must be prepared to deal with administrative delays and a maze of rules. For example, country managers for Millicom International Cellular (www.millicom.com) in Tanzania needed to wait 90 days to get customs clearance on the monthly import of roughly $1 million in cellular telephone equipment. Millicom endured this bureaucratic obstacle because of the local market’s potential.

Companies will endure a cumbersome bureaucracy if the opportunity is sufficient to offset any potential delays and expenses. Companies entering China cite the patience needed to navigate a maze of government regulations that often contradict one another and complain about the large number of permissions required from different agencies. The trouble stems from the fact that China is continually revising and developing its system of business law as its economy develops. But an unclear legal framework and inefficient bureaucracy are not deterring investment in China because the opportunities for both marketers and manufacturers are simply too great to ignore.

Stability can attract international business but social unrest can severely disrupt operations and drive out international firms. Here, a man jumps over burning tires during a riot in Paranaque City south of the capital Manila in the Philippines. Riots erupted as hundreds of families who claimed they were legally allowed to occupy land resisted the demolition teams. Illegal demolition is frequent in these urban centers where many impoverished rural workers reside.

Source: © Dennis M. Sabangan/epa/CORBIS. All Rights Reserved.

POLITICAL STABILITY

Every nation’s business environment is affected to some degree by political risk. As we saw in Chapter 3, political risk is the likelihood that a society will undergo political changes that negatively affect local business activity. Political risk can threaten the market of an exporter, the production facilities of a manufacturer, or the ability of a company to remove profits from the country in which they were earned.

The key element of political risk that concerns companies is unforeseen political change. Political risk tends to rise if a company cannot estimate the future political environment with a fair degree of accuracy. An event with a negative impact that is expected to occur in the future is not, in itself, bad for companies because the event can be planned for and necessary precautions taken. It is the unforeseen negative events that create political risk for companies.

Managers’ perceptions of a market’s political risk are often affected by their memories of past political unrest in the market. Yet managers cannot let past events blind them to future opportunities. International companies must try to monitor and predict political events that threaten operations and future profits. By investigating the political environment proactively, managers can focus on political risk and develop action plans for dealing with it.

But where do managers get the information to answer such questions? They may assign company personnel to gather information on the level of political risk in a country, or they may obtain it from independent agencies that specialize in providing political-risk services. The advice of country and regional specialists who are knowledgeable about the current political climate of a market can be especially helpful. Such specialists can include international bankers, political consultants, reporters, country-risk specialists, international relations scholars, political leaders, union leaders, embassy officials, and other local businesspeople currently working and living in the country in question.

Economic and Financial Forces

Managers must carefully analyze a nation’s economic policies before selecting it as a new market or site for operations. The poor fiscal and monetary policies of a nation’s central bank can cause high rates of inflation, increasing budget deficits, a depreciating currency, falling productivity levels, and flagging innovation. Such consequences typically lower investor confidence and force international companies to scale back or cancel proposed investments. For instance, India’s government finally reduced its restrictive trade and investment policies and introduced more open policies. These new policies encouraged investment by multinationals in production facilities and R&D centers, especially in the computer software industry.

Currency and liquidity problems pose special challenges for international companies. Volatile currency values make it difficult for firms to predict future earnings accurately in terms of the home-country currency. Wildly fluctuating currency values also make it difficult to calculate how much capital a company needs for a planned investment. Unpredictable changes in currency values can also make liquidating assets more difficult because the greater uncertainty will likely reduce liquidity in capital markets—especially in countries with relatively small capital markets, such as Bangladesh and Slovakia.

In addition to their home government’s resources, managers can obtain information about economic and financial conditions from institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank. Other sources of information include all types of business and economic publications and the many sources of free information on the Internet.

Other Forces

Transport costs and country image also play important roles in the assessment of national business environments. Let’s take a brief look at each of these forces.

COST OF TRANSPORTING MATERIALS AND GOODS

The cost of transporting materials and finished goods affects any decision about where to locate manufacturing facilities. Some products cost very little to transport through the production and distribution process, yet others cost a great deal. Logistics refers to management of the physical flow of products from the point of origin as raw materials to end users as finished products. Logistics weds production activities to the activities needed to deliver products to buyers. It includes all modes of transportation, storage, and distribution.

logistics

Management of the physical flow of products from the point of origin as raw materials to end users as finished products.

To realize the importance of efficient logistics, consider that global logistics is a $400 billion industry. We often think of the United States as an efficient logistics market because of its extensive interstate road system and rail lines that stretch from east to west. But because of overcrowded highways, 2 billion people-hours are lost to gridlock each year. That translates into $48 billion in lost productivity. Transport companies and cargo ports strenuously advertise their services precisely because of the high cost to businesses of inefficient logistics.

COUNTRY IMAGE

Because country image embodies every facet of a nation’s business environment, it is highly relevant to the selection of sites for production, R&D, or any other activity. For example, country image affects the location of manufacturing or assembly operations because products must typically be stamped with labels identifying where they were made or assembled—such as “Made in China” or “Assembled in Brazil.” Although such labels do not affect all products to the same degree, they can present important positive or negative images and boost or dampen sales.

Products made in relatively developed countries tend to be evaluated more positively than products from less developed countries.2 This relation is due to the perception among consumers that the workforces of certain nations have superior skills in making particular products. For example, consumer product giants Procter & Gamble (www.pg.com) and Unilever (www.unilever.com) have manufacturing facilities in Vietnam. But Vietnamese consumers tend to shun these companies’ locally made Close-Up toothpaste and Tide detergent, and instead they seek the identical products and brands produced in neighboring countries, such as Thailand. As one young Vietnamese shopper explained, “Tide from Thailand smells nicer.” A general perception among Vietnamese consumers is that goods from Japan or Singapore are the best, followed by Thai goods. Unfortunately for Procter & Gamble and Unilever in Vietnam, many goods from other countries are smuggled in and sold on the black market, thereby denying the companies local sales revenue.

A country’s image can be positive in one product class but negative in another. For example, the fact that Volkswagen’s (www.volkswagen.com) new Beetle is made in Mexico for the U.S. market has not hurt the Beetle’s sales. But would affluent consumers buy a hand-built Rolls-Royce (www.rolls-roycemotorcars.co.uk) automobile if it were produced in Mexico? Because Rolls-Royce buyers pay for the image of a brilliantly crafted luxury car, the Rolls-Royce image probably would not survive intact if the company were to produce its cars in Mexico.

Finally, note that country image can and does change over time. For example, “Made in India” has traditionally been associated with low-technology products such as soccer balls and many types of textile products. But today world-class computer software companies increasingly rely on the software-development skills of engineers located in and around Madras and Bangalore in southern India.

Throughout our discussion of step 2 of the screening process (assessing the national business environment), we have presented many factors central to traditional business activities. To explore issues specific to entering international markets successfully over the Internet, see the Global Manager’s Briefcase titled, “Conducting Global e-Business.”

GLOBAL MANAGER’S BRIEFCASE Conducting Global e-Business

Generating sales in new geographic markets over the Internet is an increasingly popular method of expansion for large multinationals and entrepreneurs alike. Here are some issues managers should consider when entering new markets using the Internet.

Market Access

■ Infrastructure. Before investing heavily in e-business, investigate whether your potential customers have easy access to the Internet. Determine whether their government is developing advanced digital networks.

■ Content. Companies must be informed about the different policies of each country through which their information travels in order to avoid liability. Key topics are truth in advertising; fraud prevention; and violent, seditious, or graphic materials.

■ Standards. It’s not always entirely clear which country has the power to establish standards of operations for e-business. Standards might be set up as trade barriers to keep international companies out of a domestic market.

Legal Issues

■ Privacy. One strength of e-business is that consumer data can be collected easily and used to generate sales. But consumer groups in some countries view the collection of such data as an invasion of privacy. Consumers are particularly vehement if they are unaware this information is being collected and how it is being used.

■ Security. Companies must ensure their data communications are safe from unauthorized access or modification. Security technology, such as encryption, password controls, and firewalls, still needs support from a global infrastructure.

■ Intellectual property. International agreements govern and protect copyrights, databases, patents, and trademarks. Yet these issues will remain a global concern for e-business until a widely accepted legal framework is established for the Internet.

Financial Matters

■ Electronic payments. Online use of credit cards remains a security concern for many consumers. Global electronic payment systems such as stored-value, smart cards, and other systems are in various stages of development and will alleviate many security issues.

■ Tariffs and taxation. International policies regarding which party in an international e-business transaction owes taxes to which nation are not yet fully developed. Countries differ widely on how these matters should be treated.

Quick Study

1. What are the four steps in the screening process?

2. Identify the main factors to investigate when identifying the basic appeal of a market or site for operations.

3. What key forces should be examined when assessing a nation’s business environment?

4. How do transport costs and country image affect the location decision?

Step 3: Measure Market or Site Potential

Markets and sites passing the first two steps in the screening process undergo further analysis to arrive at a more manageable number of potential locations. Despite the presence of a basic need for a product and an adequately stable national business environment, potential customers might not be ready or able to buy a product for a variety of reasons. Despite the availability of resources, certain sites may be unable to supply a given company with the level of resources it needs. Let’s now explore the factors that further influence the potential suitability of markets and sites for operations.

Measuring Market Potential

As barriers to trade are reduced worldwide, companies are looking to increase sales in industrialized and emerging markets alike. But businesses can seldom create one marketing plan for every market in which they sell their products. Nations enjoy different levels of economic development that affect what kinds of goods are sold, the manner in which they are sold, and their inherent features. Likewise, different levels of economic development require varying approaches to researching market potential. But how do managers estimate potential demand for particular products? Let’s take a look at the factors managers consider when analyzing industrialized markets and then examine a special tool for analyzing emerging markets.

INDUSTRIALIZED MARKETS

The information needed to estimate the market potential for a product in industrialized nations tends to be more readily available than in emerging markets. In fact, for the most developed markets, research agencies exist for the sole purpose of supplying market data to companies. Euromonitor (www.euromonitor.com) is one such company with an extensive global reach in consumer goods. The company sells reports and does company-specific studies for many international corporations and entrepreneurs. Some of the information in a typical industry analysis includes:

■ Names, production volumes, and market shares of the largest competitors

■ Volume of exports and imports of the product

■ Structure of the wholesale and retail distribution networks

■ Background on the market, including population figures and key social trends

■ Total expenditure on the product (and similar products) in the market

■ Retail sales volume and market prices of the product

■ Future outlook for the market and potential opportunities

The value of such information supplied by specialist agencies is readily apparent—these reports provide a quick overview of the size and structure of a nation’s market for a product. Reports vary in their cost (depending on the market and product), but many can be had for around $750 to $1,500. The company also allows online purchase of reports in small segments for as little as $20 each. We discuss other sources for this type of market data later in this chapter.

Thus companies that enter the market in industrialized countries often have a great deal of data available on that particular market. What becomes important then is the forecast for the growth or contraction of a potential market. One way of forecasting market demand is determining a product’s income elasticity —the sensitivity of demand for a product relative to changes in income. The income-elasticity coefficient for a product is calculated by dividing a percentage change in the quantity of a product demanded by a percentage change in income. A coefficient greater than 1.0 conveys an income-elastic product, or one for which demand increases more relative to an increase in income. These products tend to be discretionary purchases, such as computers, video games, jewelry, or expensive furniture—generally not considered essential items. A coefficient less than 1.0 conveys an income-inelastic product, or one for which demand increases less relative to an increase in income. These products are considered essential and include food, utilities, and beverages. To illustrate, if the income-elasticity coefficient for carbonated beverages is 0.7, the demand for carbonated beverages will increase 0.7 percent for every 1.0 percent increase in income. Conversely, if the income-elasticity coefficient for MP3 players is 1.3, the demand for MP3 players will increase 1.3 percent for every 1.0 percent increase in income.

income elasticity

Sensitivity of demand for a product relative to changes in income.

EMERGING MARKETS

The biggest emerging markets are more important today than ever. Nearly every large company engaged in international business is either already in or is considering entering the big emerging markets such as China and India. With their large consumer bases and rapid growth rates, they whet the appetite of marketers around the world. Although these markets are surely experiencing speed bumps along their paths of economic development, in the long term they cannot be ignored.

Companies considering entering emerging markets often face special problems related to a lack of information. Data on market size or potential may not be available, for example, because of undeveloped methods for collecting such data in a country. But there are ways companies can assess potential in emerging markets. One way is for them to rank different locations by developing a so-called market-potential indicator for each. This method is, however, only useful to companies considering exporting. Companies considering investing in an emerging market must look at other factors that we examine next in the discussion of measuring site potential. The main variables commonly included in market-potential analyses are:3

■ Market Size. This variable provides a snapshot of the size of a market at any point in time. It does not estimate the size of a market for a particular product, but rather the size of the overall economy. Market-size data allow managers to rank countries from largest to smallest, regardless of a particular product. Market size is typically estimated from a nation’s total population or the amount of energy it produces and consumes.

■ Market Growth Rate. This variable reflects the fact that, although the overall size of the market (economy) is important, so too is its rate of growth. It helps managers avoid markets that are large but shrinking and target those that are small but rapidly expanding. It is generally obtained through estimates of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption.

■ Market Intensity. This variable estimates the wealth or buying power of a market from the expenditures of both individuals and businesses. It is estimated from per capita private consumption and/or per capita gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (see Chapter 4).

■ Market Consumption Capacity. The purpose of this variable is to estimate spending capacity. It is often estimated from the percentage of a market’s population in the middle class, thereby concentrating on the core of an economy’s buying power.

■ Commercial Infrastructure. This factor attempts to assess channels of distribution and communication. Variables may include the number of telephones, televisions, fax machines, or personal computers per capita; the density of paved roads or number of vehicles per capita; and the population per retail outlet. An increasingly important variable for businesses relying on the Internet for sales is the number of Internet hosts per capita. But because these data become outdated quickly, care must be taken to ensure accurate information from the most current sources.

■ Economic Freedom. This variable attempts to estimate the extent to which free-market principles predominate. It is typically a summary of government trade policies, government involvement in business, the enforcement of property rights, and the strength of the black market. A useful resource is the annual Freedom in the World report published by Freedom House (www.freedomhouse.org).

■ Market Receptivity. This variable attempts to estimate market “openness.” One way it can be estimated is by determining a nation’s volume of international trade as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). If a company wants to see how receptive a market is to goods from its home country, it can ascertain the amount of per capita imports entering the market from the home country. Managers can also examine the growth (or decline) in these imports.

■ Country Risk. This variable attempts to estimate the total risk of doing business, including political, economic, and financial risks. Some market-potential estimation techniques include this variable in the market-receptivity variable. This factor is typically obtained from one of the many services that rate the risk of different countries, such as Political Risk Services (www.prsgroup.com).

After each of these factors is analyzed, they are assigned values according to their importance to the demand for a particular product. Potential locations are then ranked (assigned a market-potential indicator value) according to their appeal as a new market. As you may recall, we discussed several of these variables earlier under the topics of national and international business environments. For example, country-risk levels are shown in Map 3.1 (pages 88–89), economic freedom is shown in Map 4.1 (pages 124–125), and market receptivity (or openness) is shown in Map 5.1 (pages 146–147). Map 12.1 captures one other variable, commercial infrastructure, by showing the number of fixed-line and mobile phone subscribers per 1,000 people in each nation. This variable is an important indicator of a nation’s overall economic development. Other variables that are also good proxies for this variable include the portion of a nation’s roads that are paved or the number of personal computers, fax machines, and Internet hosts it has. One key cautionary note, however, is that emerging markets often either lack such statistics or, in the case of paved roads, international comparison is difficult.

Measuring Site Potential