Discussion Questions (Nutrition)

Probiotics

1. What are the four main families of probiotics?

2. What foods provide us with these bacteria? Are any of these foods unfamiliar to you? If yes, which ones?

3. Under what conditions supplementation with probiotics might be recommended? Do you think that probiotic use may be rejected because of cost? Is there any way to measure probiotic levels in the large intestine to determine if supplementation is necessary?

4. Are there any potential contraindications or interactions you need to be aware of? Would any of these threaten the nutritional status of the person taking the probiotics?

XLMiner Forecasting

Instructions and data attached

 

The Excel file “CentralEnglandTemp2017” shows the 3216 monthly mean (surface air) temperatures for the Midlands region of England between 1750 and 2017. (The shown temperatures are in Celsius degrees measured with a precision of 0.1 °C.) The data set represents the longest reliable series of monthly temperature observations in existence, and hence is the most valuable source of information for meteorologists and climate scientists. It was originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953, and has been subsequently updated until today.

It is quite obvious that the monthly temperatures for Midlands must have a seasonal pattern. However, the main purpose of the assignment is to examine the trend existence and its consequences.

1. Using XLMiner (Transform > Transform Categorical Data > Create Dummies), create 12 dummy variables corresponding to the 12 months (Jan, Feb,…,Dec). Since the categorical variable Month has 12 levels (categories), delete the dummy variable Jan; you will assume later the linear regression model with linear trend and seasonality:

Note. XLMiner shows the created dummy variables in the alphabetical order, so rename and rearrange them properly.

2. Create two separate data sets for the time periods 1750 – 1949 (2400 observations) and 1950-2017 (816 observations) on which you could run regression for the assumed regression model. For this purpose, you should create an additional independent variable t with values 1,2,…,2400 and 1,2,…,816, respectively.

3. Use the first data set (created for 1750-1949).

Assignment on Forecasting

https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/global-warming.jpg

OR

https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/noproof.jpg

The Excel file “CentralEnglandTemp2017” shows the 3216 monthly mean (surface air) temperatures for the Midlands region of England between 1750 and 2017. (The shown temperatures are in Celsius degrees measured with a precision of 0.1 °C.) The data set represents the longest reliable series of monthly temperature observations in existence, and hence is the most valuable source of information for meteorologists and climate scientists. It was originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953, and has been subsequently updated until today.

It is quite obvious that the monthly temperatures for Midlands must have a seasonal pattern. However, the main purpose of the assignment is to examine the trend existence and its consequences.

1. Using XLMiner (Transform > Transform Categorical Data > Create Dummies), create 12 dummy variables corresponding to the 12 months (Jan, Feb,…,Dec). Since the categorical variable Month has 12 levels (categories), delete the dummy variable Jan; you will assume later the linear regression model with linear trend and seasonality:

 

Note. XLMiner shows the created dummy variables in the alphabetical order, so rename and rearrange them properly.

2. Create two separate data sets for the time periods 1750 – 1949 (2400 observations) and 1950-2017 (816 observations) on which you could run regression for the assumed regression model. For this purpose, you should create an additional independent variable t with values 1,2,…,2400 and 1,2,…,816, respectively.

3. Use the first data set (created for 1750-1949).

A. Run Regression (in Data Analysis of Excel or Multiple Regression in Predict of XLMiner) to find the estimated regression equation:

 

B. To verify the significance of the trend in the examined time series, test the hypotheses versus . What is the p-value of the test, the test conclusion and its interpretation? (Recall that in Excel, for example, 2E-08 is , which is practically zero.)

C. What is the interpretation of in the estimated regression equation? What is the estimated change in the average temperature over 100 years based on the 1750-1949 data? Note. Secure a sufficiently high accuracy in your calculations.

4. Use the second data set (created for 1950-2017).

A. Run Regression (in Data Analysis of Excel or Multiple Regression in Predict of XLMiner) to find the estimated regression equation:

 

B. To verify the significance of the trend in the examined time series, test the hypotheses versus . What is the p-value of the test, the test conclusion and its interpretation?

C. What is the estimated change in the average temperature over 100 years based on the 1950-2017 data? Compare this result with that found in Task 3C.

D. Using the estimated regression equation found in Task 4A, make forecasts for the first nine months of 2018. On the website www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html, find the actual monthly temperatures (CET) recorded during the first nine months of 2018, and compare them with your forecasts by computing the nine forecast errors. How many times the actual temperature exceeds your forecasted temperature? How would you interpret your findings? Note. February and March of 2018 were exceptionally cold in the entire Western Europe. How this fact is reflected by the forecast errors.

E. In the regression model, assume the quadratic trend, that is,

 

After changing into in the data set, run Regression in Data Analysis of Excel or Multiple Regression in Predict of XLMiner to find the estimated regression equation:

 

F. Which of the two forecasting models (assumed in Tasks 4A and 4E) would you recommend and why?

5. Interpret your findings in light of the discussion about global warming. Feel free to express your opinion!

Note. You might be more accustomed to temperatures expressed in Fahrenheit degrees. If so, using the known formula: 0F = 9(0C)/5 + 32, you may convert all your 0C temperature data into 0F data.

Use Microsoft Word to write your answers. The Microsoft Word should include all relevant Excel/ XLMiner outputs (copy and paste them), and attach the Excel file that you work on it.

Termite Behavior: Using the Scientific Method to Know

ortfolio Question 4: Termite Behavior: Using the Scientific Method to Know

Reminder

Your complete set of portfolio activities is the capstone project of this class. Thus, it is in your best interest to carefully read the instructions and information for this assignment and critically think about the best way to answer the question before you prepare and submit your work.

Connections to Learning Outcomes:

Lightbulb iconCarefully complete each phase of the portfolio assignment dealing with the termite experiment.  Note: for each exam, two portfolio questions will be randomly selected for grading, so take your time and do your best. It is in your best interest to carefully study the grading guide so you know exactly what is expected.

· Carefully observe phenomenon and record those observations.

· Write questions based on the observations—assess which questions are scientifically testable.

· Propose a hypothesis based on observations and questions that is testable, falsifiable, and predictive.

· Design an experimental protocol based on the hypothesis.

· Gather data, analyze the data, and organize the data into a format that communicates information clearly.

· Write a conclusion that is defendable based on the evidence collected.

Introduction to the Activity

 

Termites in a wooden structure

Photo by Stephanie Burdett

This activity lets you practice elements of the scientific method as best we can in an online environment. You’ll be filling out the  Termite Activity Worksheet  as you work your way through the activity. Save a copy of the worksheet, type your information into it, and submit it when you are finished.

Hint: As you go through the activity, it will help to use a printed or electronic copy to keep track of your answers. This will make it easier to format it for submission when you are done.

Next, watch the introduction video. This segment will give you some background on termite behavior and ecology.

Click here to watch video.

01—Termites

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Now is a good time to check out the  grading guide  so you have a pretty good handle on what is expected.

Observations

There is a difference between casual and scientific observations. Good scientific observations include both qualitative (descriptive) and quantitative (numeric) data. In real life you might want to think of tools you could use to enhance observations. Details are important.

Click here to watch video.

02—Observations

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

For this segment of our activity, you need to record a minimum of four observations (more is better). For this assignment you will submit four carefully-crafted observational statements that will lead to interesting questions and a testable hypothesis.

Question Development

Think back to our lesson “Do You Know What You Should Think” and our discussion on asking good questions in order to find clear answers. You might want to review  President Samuelson’s article  to jog your memory.

Developing effective questions is an especially important concept in science: to promote problem solving, you need to ask effective questions.

Now you get to practice what you’ve learned previously. Based on your observations you’ll need to write two scientifically investigable questions.

Click here to watch video.

03—Question Development

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Constructing a Hypothesis

Remember, a hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a set of phenomena and is often based not only on observation but on prior experience, scientific background knowledge, and logic.

In this class, we’ll have you write a highly formalized hypothesis so that you clearly identify the independent and dependent variables, showing a strong relationship between the two, and make a clear prediction. A strong, clear hypothesis will help you design a good experiment!

To do this let’s review some vocabulary:

· INDEPENDENT VARIABLE (A)—the variable you, the scientist, control or change

· DEPENDENT VARIABLE (B)—the variable that you observe or measure the results of

· PREDICTION—a rigorous statement (often quantitative) forecasting what will happen under specific conditions

Remember, the observed outcome of the dependent variable depends on how you manipulate the independent variable.

Hypothesis statement format: If A (independent variable) is related to B (dependent variable), then __________________ (prediction).

The structure of a formalized hypothesis is useful because it make you focus on a single independent variable and its relationship to the dependent variable(s). Plus, it forces you to make a prediction of how manipulating the independent variable will affect the dependent variable.

For example:

If annual rainfall is related to the thickness of annual growth rings in trees, then examining wood samples will reveal correlations in the growth rings to the historical records for rainfall in that environment.

Beware! Not all if–then statements are hypotheses. An example of an if–then statement that isn’t a hypothesis might be “If heavier-than-normal rainfall occurs in one year, then the annual growth ring for that year will be thicker.” This is a simple prediction, not a hypothesis. The problem with this statement is that there is no proposition to test. What is related to what? Is rainfall a variable? Is growth a variable?

Now, you’ll select one of your investigable questions and construct a formalized hypothesis.

Click here to watch video.

04—Constructing a Hypothesis

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Experimental Design

“Because the validity of an experiment is directly affected by its construction and execution, attention to  experimental design  is extremely important.”  1  Scientists analyze the data that an experiment produces, so it’s vital to put in the time and effort required to properly design an experiment. If you’ve designed the experiment well, it will produce the right type of data, and you will be able to answer the question quickly and efficiently.

You’ve clearly identified the question the experiment is intended to answer. Now you should focus on identifying expected conflicting variables so that there is only one variable of interest that is being manipulated—this is a major way you can improve the quality of your answer. Of course, it is impossible to identify and eliminate all extraneous variables however you should eliminate as many as possible.

The students that take this course on campus in a face-to-face environment have the opportunity to actually do the termite activity. They make actual observations and carry out experiments. Since an online course does not have this luxury, I’m going to tell you the six directions virtually every on-campus student takes when writing a hypothesis.

· Ink color—the color of the ink is what attracts termites to the circle

· Shape—the geometric shape drawn affects whether or not termites follow the ink path

· Smell/taste—termites are attracted to the smell of the ink, or they like the taste of the ink

· Texture—the stickiness, wetness, smoothness, etc. of the ink influences termite movement

· Indentation—the recess in the surface of the paper forms a pathway the termites follow

Does one of these fit your hypothesis? Great! If not, then don’t worry. Write up your experimental design based on your hypothesis.

Take some time to carefully design an experiment to test your hypothesis. Use bullet points to briefly describe your experimental protocol including how you plan to eliminate unwanted variables and the sorts of data you will collect.

Click here to watch video.

05—Experimental Design

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Record the Experimental Data

Evaluating an idea in light of the evidence should be simple, right? Either the results match the expectations or they don’t. Sometimes this is true, but in the real world things are usually more complex and messy, which means it’s not so straightforward to interpret the evidence that pertains to your idea. For these reasons it is crucial to have a good idea of the data you want to collect from an experiment and be scrupulous when collecting that data.

Because we are not in a face-to-face class, you were not able to actually carry out your own experimental design. We still want you to have the experience of collecting and analyzing data, so we’ve set up five of the most common experimental designs Biology 100 students have created in the past. Select the idea that best fits your hypothesis, click on the link and collect the data. Make sure you organize your data so it is clear and tells a story.

Ink Color

Click here to watch video.

06—Ink Color

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Shape

Click here to watch video.

07—Shape

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Smell/Taste

Click here to watch video.

08—Smell/Taste

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Texture

Click here to watch video.

09—Texture

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Indentation

Click here to watch video.

10—Indentation

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Analyze the Data—Write a Conclusion

Data analysis is perhaps the trickiest part of any scientific endeavor. The same data may be interpreted in different ways. After many rounds of experiments, arguments, and analysis, the scientific community usually reaches a concensus about how a set of data should be interpreted but this process usually involves additional lines of evidence.

For this activity we are not interested if you “got the right answer” as to why the termites behave as they did. We are interested that you show deep thought, logic, and application of the evicence (data) in your conclusion.

Recap

For this part of the activity we’ll look at potential problems with various experiments. After watching this segment, you’ll write down two uncertainties you have about the conclusion you just wrote (i.e., why you might be not completely confident in your conclusion). At this point you may want to go back and view the other experiments.

Click here to watch video.

11—Recap

To read the transcript for this video, click  here .

Reflection

Now that you’ve completed the termite activity, you’ll reflect on the principles to which you were introduced in this unit and put into practice in this lesson by answering two questions. You might want to review your notes, the Explorable website, and the assigned reading in your textbook to help you prepare your answers.

Formatting and Naming Your Assignment

Please follow these guidelines.

· Type your information in the  Termite Activity Worksheet .

· Any citations (in text and works cited page) should be in MLA format (see the  BYU Writing Center  website for more information).

· Save the file in DOC or DOCX format.

· Name the file using the course number, your first and last name, and the assignment name for the filename. For example, BIO100_KimSmith_TermiteActivity_Unit2Lesson3.docx

Submitting Your Assignment

When you are ready to submit your assignment,

1. Click on “Show Dropbox” at the bottom right of your screen.

2. Click on “Choose File.”

3. In the window that pops up, navigate to the document you want to submit.

4. Select the document and click “Open.”

5. In the comment box below, add any comments you have or any comments required by the assignment.

6. Once everything is ready, click “Submit.” A small icon will appear in the top right corner of the screen and on the navigation menu informing you that the assignment has been submitted and is ready for grading.

Reading Links:

 

http://writingcenter.byu.edu/

 

https://explorable.com/research-basics

 

https://speeches-dev.byu.edu/talks/cecil-o-samuelson_importance-asking-questions/

Edmg220 Week 4 Forum Responses

Please start a new thread when creating your initial post and write any responses to others within their existing discussion threads. To receive full credit, be sure to respond to at least two of your classmates’ postings.
Please thoughtfully reply to at least two other students due by 11:55pm ET on Sunday.  Your replies must contain a minimum of 75 words.

#1

Hello class! After reviewing what we have learned so far, I think that the most important component of the emergency planning process is step six. Step six is implementing and maintaining the plan. Of course the first five steps (1. Form a collaborative planning team, 2. Understand the situation 3. Determine goals and objectives, 4. Develop a plan, 5. Prepare and review the plan), are extremely important because the plan needs to be made in the first place (FEMA, 2010)! There are, however, a few reasons that step six is the most important part.

First, if the first five steps are completed yet the plan is not implementing during an emergency, what good is it? We can do all the preparing in the world, but if the plan is not utilized when it is actually needed, then it was pretty much all for nothing. If the emergency services functions are not put into action, the supplies are not handed out, and the vital information is not given to citizens, all the planning will not have saved lives. Second, without training workers and emergency planners on how to successfully execute the plan, then it will not be effective in helping people.

Lastly, without maintaining the plan it could be very ineffective down the line. If the plan is outdated or has been proven to be problematic, it needs to be reevaluated and fixed. A remedial action process can help to identify and correct problems with an EOP (FEMA, 2010). It includes post-disaster critiques, self-assessments, audits, and much more to reveal what might be wrong with the current plan (FEMA, 2010). Threats and hazards can change over time and updating plans is vital to keeping residents safe and informed.

Works Cited:

FEMA. (2010). Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 101. Retrieved December 16, 2018, from https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1828-25045-0014/cpg_101_comprehensive_preparedness_guide_developing_and_maintaining_emergency_operations_plans_2010.pdf

#2

Good Morning Class:

As all 6 steps are critical in not only developing and maintaining the Emergence operations Plan (EOP), however from my experience and the readings in this authors option step 6 is the most value added for two main reasons. First and foremost is, Plan Implementation and Maintenance.  Is being used with the first key element of exercising and then editing the plan you will get a real time evaluation if what you have planned actually works before having to accomplish the actual process.

There are many ways to produce an EOP. The planning process that follows is flexible and allows communities to adapt it to varying characteristics and situations. While not ideal, if time is a constraint, steps can be minimized or skipped in order to accelerate the process. Small communities can follow just the steps that are appropriate to their size, known risks, and available planning resources. Figure 4.1 depicts steps in the planning process. At each step in the planning process, jurisdictions should consider the impact of the decisions made on training, exercises, equipment, and other requirements. (FEMA, 2010)

In order for step 6 to be truly value added the after-action report (AAR) must be accomplished, and reviewed with a critical eye, and from each entity participating in the exercise. If any one key element such as say the shelter operations you may be unaware that a particular shelter has been undergoing renovations for asbestos removal and is not available for a large segment of the affected population.

The after-action report (AAR) results from an administrative process used by the jurisdiction to review and discuss the response in order to identify strengths and weaknesses in the emergency management and response program. The AAR should: Describe the reasons and need to conduct an AAR (e.g., review actions taken, identify equipment shortcomings, improve operational readiness, highlight strengths/initiatives) Describe the methods and agencies used to organize and conduct a review of the disaster, including how recommendations are documented to improve local readiness (e.g., change plans/procedures, acquire new or replace outdated resources, retrain personnel) Describe the links and connections between the processes used to critique the response to an emergency/disaster and the processes used to document recommendations for the jurisdiction’s exercise program Describe how the jurisdiction ensures that the deficiencies and recommendations identified in the AAR are corrected/completed. (FEMA, 2010)

Works Cited:

FEMA. (2010). Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 101. Retrieved December 14, 2018, from https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1828-25045-0014/cpg_101_comprehensive_preparedness_guide_developing_and_maintaining_emergency_operations_plans_2010.pdf